Let's use Phase IV as being 100% of value. (and the percentage of value is directly proportioned to the percentage of Estimated probability of compound reaching market at beginning of phase)
Phase IV Monitor drug once regulatory approval has been received for safety and efficacy 100%
Registration: Assessment by regulatory approval body 90%
Phase III: To determine long term safety, efficacy and cost effectiveness of a new drug in large numbers of patients. 80%
Phase II: To determine preliminary efficacy and to confirm safety, tolerance and drug disposition from Phase 1 trial. 30%
Phase I: To test the compound in healthy volunteers to establish possible side effects and safe dosage levels 20%
Assuming the full value of ANP at Phase IV is $500m
So at Phase 1, it would be $100m or about 10cps (20% of $500m)
i.e once Phase I is successfully and into Phase II, ANP should be valued between $100-$150m or between 10cps and 15cps (30% of $300m)
Just a ball park assumption by using the propability percentage. (similar to P30 in oil exploration)
FEO
DYOR
ANP Price at posting:
32.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
