Boris,Thanks for posting the article indicating how Japan and...

Boris,

Thanks for posting the article indicating how Japan and China economies performed in January.

And, I agree with you when you say: "Way too much conflicting news out there".
That, unfortunately, is usually the case in times of turmoil, economic or otherwise. One needs to sift through and try to comprehend what is presented, to get the correct picture. Information can often be manipulated and descriptions of events phrased in ways to suit the self-interest needs.

A view that the GOOD NEWS being shown by the BDI and BPI is in conflict with the contents of the article you posted would be, IMHO, wrong.

WHY? Well...........the BDI is a FORWARD-LOOKING Index. It aims to indicate the strength of economic activity IN THE FUTURE, by showing the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of DRY BULK carriers, TODAY. The index figure is calculated by the Baltic Exchange every working day and therefore is a forward projection of economic activity at a time in the future when the raw commodities (iron ore, RP, Grains, coal, oil) will be used. If the raw materials are ordered and shipped, they are on their way to somewhere in the world for FUTURE processing into intermediate or finished goods. The BDI is NOT a measure of shipping FINISHED goods either over sea or land.

In essence, one could say that the BDI "foretold" the downturn in China and Japan, as reported in the article you posted.

Yes, the BDI did reach in the order of 11000+ in May/June 2008. Thereafter the Index was in steep descent until it reached a bottom in December, 2008. Thereafter it has slowly and gradually risen.
Again, it is a FORWARD-LOOKING Index; and one could suggest the bottom reached in December could have been taken as a sign, a "prediction" if you like, of the events which have unfolded not just in China and Japan in January(per the article you posted) but around the world since.


So,.......the article you posted(I'm assuming it's fairly current as no date shown shown) reports a period that is in the PAST. The BDI(including the BPI and BCI) looks to indicate what may happen in FUTURE periods.

The article you posted and the BDI are therefore not two pieces of "conflicting" news, they're really two sources of information that really look in opposite directions!

Cheers.