I am a shipbroker and I trade the routes that make up the BDI....

I am a shipbroker and I trade the routes that make up the BDI. The fact is that The BDI is heavily influenced by factors that can have little to do with long term economic growth - This is the current scenario!

for example

Stockpiling - see china iron ore stockpiles effecting demand.

Seasonal issues - see the Atlantic Grain season boost demand and now demand has tappered.

Trading techniques. Large companies are able to influence supply and demand by taking lots of ships or lots of cargoes in an effort to someohow position themselves for future plays. See china steel companies but also many shipowners are laying up ships to limit supply and keep rates high.

Supply side - as aluded to by another poster the supply of ships. The level of new building coming on is much more than the anticipated scrappings. having said that it is estimated that 10-20 percent of forward order for ships will not see the light of day.

Cheers
Virtual Shipbroker