The BDI is a useful indicator but it is not the only indicator and I don't look at it in isolation. The huge drop in the BDI last year was a direct result of the lack of credit - no-one was paying for shipping or receipt of goods. This year there are other factors at work, not the least of which is a rationalisation of shipping. Many new ships that were commissioned a couple of years ago are now coming into use and older ships are being scrapped. In the interim, there are too many ships for the cargo.
So I agree it's an important indicator, but more useful in the context of what's happening with shipping and other market indicators.
Now whether the bear has hibernated yet - only time will tell. But I like the current rally - it's a good chance to make a few bucks going long.
