At least in the case of the big four banks, they would be likely to be bailed out by government.
I doubt that Credit Unions would attract the same support, but don't know much about them.
It's one of the recommendations of the Murray Report that banks will be forced to hold more capital in future in order to shore up their strength in the case of another global event such as the GFC.
The big four, however, will fight against this as to do so would reduce their profitability. To this end some of them are suggesting the only way they can increase their capital base will be to reduce dividends. Franking could also be in jeopardy.
If that happened, then the share price would likely fall as the hundreds of thousands of investors who have bought bank shares as a yield play because of cash interest rates being so low, would look elsewhere.
