I don't know how Fitch comes up with a figure of only 4.7% contraction for the Italian economy in 2020. The crisis in Italy started with the first case on Feb 20. The heartland of Italy's industry was locked down on the 8th of March and the nationwide lockdown was implemented 2 days later. The nationwide lockdown was due to be lifted on the 3rd of April but has been extended. The cases and deaths look like they may have peaked but the death rate is still sitting at over 600/day (charts courtesy of the NY times). Grid power usage has fallen by 20% which is a pretty direct indication that GDP has contracted much more than 4.7% at least while the crisis is at a peak. It depends on when the lockdown is lifted and how quickly things can get back to normal. I'm not sure at what case and death rate the government will lift the lockdown. If the numbers decline at approximately the same rate as they rose then you are looking at around the beginning of May. How the virus numbers react to a lifting of the lockdown and how many businesses will reopen straight away is also an unanswered question.Esh
Weak Economic Outlook Puts Pressure on Italian Bank Ratings
