Here's one view on debt:CPD - Cumulative Probability of Default...

Here's one view on debt:


CPD - Cumulative Probability of Default - thats 17.4% for Greece and 2.9% for the US (changing fast?) - sorry I couldn't copy the figures better

The Worlds Safest Sovereign Debt
Position Q4 Country 5 Year CPD (%) CMA Implied Rating 5 Year CDS Mid (bps) Previous Ranking
1
Norway
1.4
aaa
15.6
1 (No Change)
2
Germany
1.9
aaa
22
4 (Up 2)
3
Finland
2.1
aaa
24.5
2 (Down 1)
4
France
2.2
aaa
26
5 (Up 1)
5
Netherlands
2.5
aaa
29.5
6 (Up 1)
6
Denmark
2.6
aaa
30.5
8 (Up 2)
7
USA
2.9
aaa
34
3 (Down 4)
8
Australia
3.2
aaa
38.1
7 (Down 1)
9
Belgium
3.8
aa+
45.3
9 (No Change)
10
Switzerland
3.9
aa+
45.7
New Entry
The lowest


and

The Worlds Riskiest Sovereign Debt Position Q4 Country 5 Year CPD (%) CMA Implied Rating 5 Year CDS Mid (bps) Previous Ranking
1
Venezuela
57.7
ccc
1265
3 (Down 2)
2
Ukraine
54.6
ccc
1344
1 (Up 1)
3
Argentina
49.1
ccc+
1033
2 (Up 1)
4
Latvia
30.1
b+
538
4 (No Change)
5
Iceland
25.4
bb-
538
5 (No Change)
6
Dubai
25.1
b+
422.8
8 (Down 2)
7
Lithuania
19.3
bb-
316.8
6 (Up1)
8
Greece
17.4
bb
220
New Entry
9
Romania
17.2
bb
276.3
New Entry
10
Lebanon
17
bb
269.6
9 (Up 1)
Russia


the worlds a risky place but the good ol USA is still one of the least risky

from:

http://www.cmavision.com/images/uploads/docs/CMA_Global_Sovereign_Credit_Risk_Report_Q4_2009.pdf