Thanks for the link to the interesting discussion, very generous with your time to share your thoughts on trading/timing as well as the macro factors. Like a lot of resource investors, I am seeing my U stocks outperforming nearly everything else at the moment although unfortunately my own U portfolio is limited to BHP PDN BMN DYL NXG & BOE. I went pretty conservatively into U a few years ago and limited myself to producers or near-term developers (based on the experience of other commodity booms, where there is the lag in uplift in valuations for the more junior end of town compared to producers). My investment thesis was sticking to decent jurisdictions and quality of orebody, as other investors in other commodities have recently found out, in various parts of Africa such as Mali and the DRC and in Panama, sovereign risk and jurisdictional risk is actually a real thing, and even the best managers can't avoid sudden changes in government and/or corruption. No point having the best orebody in the world, confiscated off you by local corrupt goons. Obviously, the technical challenge of permitting and construction, and the time to get new capacity into production makes U a similar story to other cyclical commodities such as many base metals and rare/specialty metals, just with more elongated timeframes.
I'm interested in others thoughts, and maybe yours @dc1234 that if this is a genuine U boom, as to what we can predict will be the unwinding of this boom given more reactors are under construction. If I was a betting man I would be thinking of a geopolitical dislocation with Russian U being diverted to China and India (a typical sanction busting/arbitrage story) and Western end-use being facilitated by expansion from Australia, Canada and Namibia with the market becoming bifurcated into two different market places. The acid shortages and response of future production from Kazakstan is still the other real wild card in this thinly traded and rather opaque commodity.
Taking profits for me is still a more difficult decision rather than the original investment thesis and timing of the buy. I have been gradually taking profits myself but its an incremental thing and I'm sure like most, sometimes exit too early and leave money on the table.
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