Hi mate.
Just making sure you mean't to say " $23 million for the FIRST 2 years of it's 25 year life span" , not 2 year life span
The well will produce ~40% of it's reserve with the first 2 years as can be seen below according to @TheProfessional first class cashflow modelling
Again, the price of oil is important, but the price of NGl's is just as important , especially for the whole life of the well , as the revenue stream breakdown for the first 2 years is:
Oil 54%
NGL's 31%
Gas 15%
and for the whole well life
Oil 39%
NGL's 36%
Gas 25%
The fact that the price of oil and NGL's is high right now, NGL price chart below
where the flush production should capture those prices ( unless we get a price collapse in the next 4-5 months) should be a huge cashflow bonus to BRK and SHE.
Note the commodity prices and hence revenue stream in @TheProfessional 's modelling is in US$.
Also note how profitable the production is, where operating costs are ~7.6% of revenue ( ex royalties, taxes etc) for the first 2 years, and 10.9% of revenue over the projected 25 year well life.
Just to reiterate, even with the excellent projections, this cashflow is just the icing on the cake. The real game is the value uplift that will be achieved by the BRK acreage within the 3 DSU's, due to the successful drilling, completion and placing onto production of the Jewel, Rangers and Flames wells.
Critics of BRK point to the fact that shale is a ponzi scheme, a mugs game , the decline rates are too large, costs to high blah, blah blah which I do agree with if your acreage is crap. But DP , via the Black mesa team have picked up first class, tier 1 acreage, surrounded by infrastructure ( we are less than 1 KM from a gas trunk line), multiple first class service providers , multiple selling options for the hydrocarbons and multiple large tier one oil and gas companies looking for proven prime acreage as bolt on acquisitions to their own positions.
This company has a plan, is executing the plan and on the balance of things, so far so good and possible a little ahead of expectations .
49 days to the MD's birthday
Cheers
Dan
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