I know you are not down ramping, you have been here a while with an investment and frustrated with the present share price. I don't have a problem with anyone articulating any view, positive or negative, as long as it is backed up with something material or informative. Some dude posting " she'll go to the moon" without any substantive material is just the same garbage as " this is a dog s%$t stock" just because the share price isn't doing where they wanted it to.
Please don't take what I post as gospel. That is my "interpretation" of the currently available information . The point I was trying to convey was that BRK do have enough capital to prosecute their forecast drilling plan, funded from production... but also being mindful that circumstances can change, a collapse in the oil and gas prices, a well failure or an unforeseen event can change the picture to which the company would have to respond quickly and possibly change tack.
No, I don't think the market " is not buying the story" just because there is a possibility the company may not have 2 new SWISH wells producing by Christmas. BRK never said that, that is just my assessment. They will continue drilling to develop the Sycamore at the pace they can and they may have a new well producing by Christmas but IMO that would have to be a Bradbury vertical well.
In terms of the "left of field " announcement , the only single event IMO that would cause a significant, immediate and lasting rerate would be a large sale of the PUD'S which would crystallise and make obvious the value generated . Anything else, I doubt would materially move the dial. For example, if they announced a new SWISH DSU of 640 acres, ( very difficult but not impossible for that to occur due to very little acreage available) why would that event , which would effectively increase SWISH acreage, reserves ( after HBP drilling) and SWISH valuation by 20% cause a rerate, when the market is for now ignoring the 2800 gross SWISH acres operated by BRK and the significant value already captured? Apart form a large asset sale, I wouldn't be hanging my hat on a single event like changing things too much right now. Having said that, IMO the accumulation of events, like a new DSU in the SWISH, plus continued drilling leading to increasing production and cashflow plus other BAU stuff will eventually result in the value and profit generated by BRK impossible to ignore by the market . It will just take some time as BRK are still building the business.
I 1000% agree that we are all here to make money. As the @TheProfessional says , we are not here to do unmentionable acts to spiders. Because of my conviction based on over 4 years of research, due diligence, connecting with some very smart people plus significant time spent communicating with DP for explanation and clarification, I have invested more money in BRK than any other single stock by a factor of 4 . I'll be brazen enough to say I'm here to make a bucket load ... eventually.
Will that " ambition" be realised? I have no idea but in my assessment, BRK at the moment is the least risky path to achieve that. Despite the abysmal current share price , BRK operational success is decreasing risk and increasing the percentages for material financial reward with every milestone achieved. That is why for me, patience is required and that is why I'm calling BS on your BS call to those saying be patient
If one requires a quick return/profit then BRK is probably not the stock to hold right now. If one has held for a while, like myself , every day gets us closer to the end game and there should be a few opportunities along the way to get off, or get on with a profit if one wants to.
We are in this environment because very few wanted to back BRK in the early stages. As mentioned before, had BRK been able to raise $4 million in 2016 instead of $1 million, we would have 8 -10 DSU's and 8000 SWISH acres today. Had SHE come with $8 million in early 2018 instead of $4 million in late 2019 and funded Jewell, plus co funded Rangers and Flames BRK would have much less direct production, but still have all the PUD's and 2-2.5 billion SOI.
To finally get the show on the road, after 3 years of trying to avoid issuing cheap equity for drilling the initial HBP Jewel well, DP had to bite the bullet. CPS were the only group that were prepared to raise the amount needed, and had him bent over a barrel... that's the cold hard facts of the matter. DP could have turned them down and we would be here today with no activity, lost the3 DSU's ( they were coming to the end of their lease terms) and therefore completely lost the current opportunities . The only upside in that outcome would have been ~2 billion SOI instead if the 5 billion now.
Finally, I appreciate many get irritated with the continuous references to BAU, operational success etc, etc but when you take a step back, isn't that why any company is in business .... to grow profits and assets on a sustainable basis and the success of that is measured by the market? It is perplexing, frustrating, disappointing the market is not recognising or rewarding BRK efforts, but the story is not finished yet.
Cheers
Dan
BRK Price at posting:
1.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)