No, the exit plan as such because the BRK model is based on private equity followed in the USA for generations which is build , monetize, repeat . The number of repeats dependent on what opportunities are present at the monetisation events, but the repeat base is magnitudes greater than the previous one.
Lets be really clear on a couple of points.
1) BRK announced the prospective resource net to their WI ( after royalties and the Black Mesa back in) in November 2020, where they first mentioned the "potential" 21 well 5 year year program, starting with the Jewell well. The oil price when they announced this potential program was ~US$45 per BOE and from memory, the prices used in their modelling was US$50 per BO and US$ 3 per MCF gas, but I will have to check and revert if incorrect . Now, on what basis do you "feel" like the program would only work at record oil prices? This is just a phrase without substance as what evidence do you show to support this feeling?. When the price of oil hit US$ 120 per barrel, BRK didn't change their program or their language which has been consistent throughout..
2) The 5 year, 20 well program is what John Schummer has calculated it would take BRK, IF and only IF they decided to monetise via full development of the 3 current DSU's themselves. BRK have NEVER stated they will go down this path, just that IF full development of the current asset is done by BRK, then that is how many wells it would take and how long it would take them at 1 well per quarter.
So for the umpteenth time, the last occasion being during the 1 half 2022 interview with Spark Plus, BRK will monetise the assets in a manner which give BRK shareholders the biggest ...... Blah, Blah , blah, blah..
David has repeated on a number of occasions, in the hands of a bigger industry player, the BRK SWISH assets may be more valuable in their hands as they could drill more wells at a faster rate than BRK, thereby increasing the NPV of the asset by bringing forward the production and resultant cashflow. CLR's engineers for example, may have a different view than Black Mesa, where they calculate they can do 2 more Woodford wells on each DSU and drill 8-9 wells a year with 2 rigs, so their full development could be 26 wells over a 3 year period .
3) BRK have always said once the HBP program was completed, they would move to working on the monetisation program, which would begin with ( but not end) the initial drilling of the development wells. While they are doing this, they would also move on the other pillars of their model.... and that is where we are now.
So many are so fixated on the 20 well development program, and either don't listen, don't understand, or just choose to disregard what BRK are saying in regards to the asset monetisation, now the HBP program is complete.
Shut eye time
Cheers
Dan
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