What's that Col, what happens to Mt Cat as prices start to...

What's that Col, what happens to Mt Cat as prices start to recover?
Well, let's have a look shall we....

Scenario 1 - Baseline 2020 plan, 120kt total SC, 50kt of this from stockpiled ore
Scenario 1B - Increase production to 160kt total SC, still 50kt from stockpiled ore
Scenario 1C - Increase production to 200kt total SC, still 50kt from stockpiled ore

Admin/site costs ($/t) scaled accordingly to total about the same as 2018 ($5.2m) in 1B and 1C.






Wow, seems there is some decent money to be made.
Plenty to cover the sustaining capital and other site costs that pop up along the way.


Oh, and if you think this is far fetched, then you should consider the following:


Product price rate of increase during 2017 was rapid and very significant.
Why can't it happen again? It HAS happened before.
Look at the Q1-Q4 selling prices. Look how fast they increased, coinciding with an increase in demand:




Interestingly, in 2017, when our average selling price was $783/t, our EBITDA for Mt Cattlin was about $60m, with about 155kt of SC sold.



These numbers align relatively well with my estimates of Net $$ in the top table for the 160kt case (Scenario 1B) and the equivalent sales price.
Interesting.


It's gonna get real interesting as the market improves, demand increases, and prices rise again. REAL interesting.
Look how rapidly the prices rose in just one year, in 2017. Wow. How quickly we forget.
Might that be similar from mid-2020? End 2020? Time will tell.


GLTALTers!