Banter and General Comments, page-14864

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Rob826

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09/05/20

17:07

Post #: 44528754
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Originally posted by GARETH78: ↑

Hi @Rob826 hope your well, you have been a bit quiet on the posting front lately. good to see you back.

Just to add to the discussion,while there may be an over supply currently I don't believe it's as bad as a lot of analysts and forecasters make out.

Below is the raw numbers for Spod Production and Sales in Australia since 2017 by company. I had to do some WMT to DMT conversions so don't hold me to them, but they are pretty close to companies closing inventory where reported.

Since Jan 2017 there has been 322K T of spod produced more than sales, creating stock piles. About 40K T is sat at A40. This leaves around 280K excess. This equates to 4 months sales. This is not that much really, and ties in with SH saying China is sitting on excess of a bout 4-5 months stock.

It won't take too much of a lift in demand to clear stock piles, both PLS & GXY are already doing a fairly good job of dropping stock on hand. MIN is sitting on about 60% of the excess.

Highlighted in BLUE is A40 sales. It was basically a 3 month wonder, all that effort and capital. There production came on line right at the wrong time, with peak Aus spod production June Qtr 2019.

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Thank@GARETH78, I've been here reading, just haven't had a lot to post about really. You (and others here) are a lot more knowledgeable then I am so I prefer to read and let it sink in. Keep up the good work, I always enjoy reading your balanced and well researched posts.

GXY Price at posting: 74.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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