"An EBITDA ratio of around 5 is appropriate"Industry...

"An EBITDA ratio of around 5 is appropriate"

Industry average..?

Wild guess..?

Suited your short position at the time..?

Perhaps this will help?:

The enterprise-value-to-EBITDA ratio varies by industry. However, the EV/EBITDA for the S&P 500 has typically averaged from 11 to 14 over the last few years. As of the end of 2017, the average EV/EBITDA for the S&P was 12.75.

EV = market capitalization + preferred shares + minority interest + debt - total cash

Our current EV is somewhere around $580m, including the Posco $ (near enough to certainty to not include).

Our forward 12-month earnings are circa $100m. 

Current EV/EBITDA multiple is therefore around 6, just from Mount Cattlin alone.

Sounds to me like our "fair value" should be a couple dollars higher, assuming that Mt Cat extends it's mine life through resource expansion (already happening)..

AND THEN we need to add something for the risked value of SDV and JB.... and whatever else is on the cards (ok, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet).

With $$ available for SDV and significant work already undertaken, much de-risking has already been done.  

What, realistically, are the chances that it won't go ahead? Slim imo.

When SDV is producing even at say 25 ktpa, that is circa $200-300m p.a. earnings.

That should add another $6-8 to the share price in itself.   Lookout if that expands to 50 ktpa.

It will (should!) start to approach that valuation as we get closer and closer to production, and the risk becomes less and less and less.... 

Then add JB.  40 ktpa converter? 

Ok I'll stop.

Fundamentally overvalued...?  Imo I don't think so.