Banter and General Comments, page-20005

I like your optimism @acwbagnall I once felt the same way about this company, that they would do great things and would be a doer not a gunna.

By 2025 which is in 4 years time, Mt Cattlin will be coming close to end of life the value in the asset... It will be nothing more than what it can sell and the pricing it will be achieving. Part of the reason for wanting to ship tailings whilst it will add to the bottom line now is to reduce the waste for cleanup which the company has advised will cost them.

Sal De Vida, the company have indicated that they would like to move into stage 2 as soon as possible after completion of stage 1. They are talking about stage 1 being ~12,000 tonnes per annum. This is roughly the equivalent of what Orcobre ships annually. In the 2nd half of this year Orocobre will be sending their supply into Japan for refinishing into 10,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide. If Galaxy want to size up against a company that will be the one, however Orocobre are also working on an expansion program which may or may not be dissimilar to what they are currently producing, but that will be additional funds just like Mt Cattlin produces, just not with a small remaining life of production left.

I have my doubts that the company will complete stage 2 of Sal De Vida by 2025, and I also doubt that they will achieve 12,000tpa however to save a back and forth as to how successful they will be in producing 12,000tpa lets accept that they do that.

James Bay wise, someone needs a converter. The company did try to tell me that they would put it on a ship and send it to China if there isn't one in the area.... Yeah, nah, I don't agree that they will do that. If the company is not going to build their own converter they will need to have a customer with one, in which case that is one hell of a limited market.
I do believe that Galaxy might be one of the parties making a bid for NAL as that would be a logical step to entering Canada, a number of companies making bids have seen that too.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Nemaska making a bid as that science experiment in Shawinigan is wasting their time.
Until there is a plan for a converter tied to Galaxy's James Bay project I draw a red line through this one by 2025.

With a bit of optimism by 2025 Galaxy will have 12,000tpa from Sal De Vida with stage 2 under construction. Mt Cattlin coming close to the end of its life with an LCE value of 25,000tpa, and selling some tailings which I have no idea how to place an LCE value on 1%
The result is an LCE value applied to the company of 37,000, attached to that is the provisor that the company is able to get Sal De Vida stage 1 running optimally and they don't require any more shut downs or slow downs at Mt Cattlin which tends to be a regular occurance.

Using your pricing figures, I provide the following.

Sal De Vida 12,000tpa
Revenue - US$240 million
*I was a little unsure of your cost of production as it has been quoted as lower by the company, though maybe you're using this higher figure for ramp up?

Mt Cattlin 200,000tpa
Revenue - US$200 million

Total Revenue - US$480 million (at current conversion AU$626 million)

Multiple of 10 = AU$6.26 million.