On an otherwise quiet day on the market, it is good to reflect on where we are at and where we could get to in the coming days.
Not sure if anyone was game enough to listen to Joe Lowry's special edition podcast on the "Galacobre" merger released over the weekend?
Whilst I have been critical of Joe's commentary in recent times (especially in relation to his views on GXY) he was largely complimentary of the proposed hook-up between GXY and ORE. In fact, his change of tune from his initial (knee-jerk tweet) was a complete 180 degrees. He gives the pluses and minuses pretty fairly. The one thing that I did take from it was his thought/ opinion that the new merged entity would (itself) be a takeover target of a larger player. That being the case, will we start seeing some accumulation in either/ or/ both ORE and GXY in coming days as a prelude to a possible larger takeover?
Also, regarding recent upgrades in valuations by analysts, will we start seeing a convergence of share prices towards some of these valuations?
If we look at both Citi and Macquarie, we have price targets of $4.80 and $4.50 (for GXY) respectively. and, these valuations are before any of the post merger synergies (between 5 - 12% as forecast by Citi). Therefore, at the current price of $3.80 for GXY, we could see another 26% share price appreciation to hit the upper price target level.
Surely, Mr Market is looking at this and saying: we have two stocks about to consummate a marriage that are trading below current (pre-merger) valuations that operate in a growing (read exponentially growing) market with little or no downside risk. Shouldn't we be buying??
I know what I am doing!!!
GXY Price at posting:
$3.81 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held