Hi All
With 600 posts, just celebrating with a little update with more information released. I have presented all the information showing the synthesis of various bits of information below.
What we have is China battery production at a record high in June and this is now linked to reported spod pricing in the range of $800-$850. 15Gwh seems to be the lever that really breaks equilibrium and causes the price spikes. Between 10-12 prices can stabilize, below 10 we have contraction.
Historically, sales should be very flat for the next few months, but the data is trending that this may not be the case this year and we may keep pushing high MoM.
Next major sales push will be September and we are getting greater confirmation that this event will cause substantial price growth. If trends continue we should be around $1000 for spod by December. At that price Mt C cashflow will be very supportive of our development needs. We will be rolling in the money. SH should have a very upbeat announcement on pricing at the quarterly conference call.
If we look back at Roskills pricing from just Feb this year (below), by inserting the red (actual pricing) we can see how wrong the forecasts are, and how everything needs to be redone. This is going to be higher and for longer, so a very good future ahead. All the best to all longs out there.
