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Hi, I think you are greatly underestimating the service life of...

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Essa

204 Posts.

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05/01/19

22:55

Post #: 37035245
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Originally posted by RBradley1980 ↑

Originally posted by findinggems
So you choose to ignore my question to you in your other post and start a different discussion.

OK, I will bite:

In buying a pure electric vehicle this auto consumer is essentially paying an extra $20,000 a year in order to save $742 per year.

That seems to be a typo. I believe it should have said:

In buying a pure electric vehicle this auto consumer is essentially paying an extra $20,000 in order to save $742 per year.

The $20,000 is the difference between Hyundai Ioniq EV and the Elantra ICE.
The $742 savings per year is based on the following:

Assuming our auto consumer is an average small vehicle driver (hence the Elantra/Ioniq) his total recharging cost would be around $608.40 with an Ioniq and his refueling cost would be around $1,350.65 with the Elantra. This results in a net fuel cost saving of $742.25 over one year.

Well, not in my case, or most EV owners for that case. That's because I have solar PV and most of the time, my car stays at home during the day. Also, don't forget regenerative braking when in use. Therefore, my net savings is $1,350 per year. That's a total of $13,500 over 10 years.

The article that you quoted also did not include a figure for servicing cost for the ICE Elantra. How much servicing cost do you normally pay a year ?

Then the battery pack. In the US, the Ioniq EV battery pack includes a lifetime warranty. Here in Australia, 8 year warranty or 160,000km.

Having said all of the above:
* EV is not for everyone, granted. ( e.g. Those without a garage and have to park on the street ).
* More EV adoption will happen, because:
- Price parity will be achieved, sooner than later.
- Car manufacturers will stop selling EVs. VW, the largest, said so themselves ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-engines-to-be-launched-in-2026-idUSKBN1O32O6 )

So what are YOU going to do ?
Of course the $20,000 a year was a typo, I barely blinked while producing that. It should be self evident that you wouldn't buy a new car every year.

Well, not in my case, or most EV owners for that case. That's because I have solar PV and most of the time, my car stays at home during the day. Also, don't forget regenerative braking when in use. Therefore, my net savings is $1,350 per year.

This may be correct if the PV system itself had zero capital cost, my PV system cost $12,000 for a 4.2 kW system nearly a decade ago and has an opportunity cost associated with it as I feed my grid electricity at $0.44 per kWh under the QLD Solar scheme.

That's a total of $13,500 over 10 years.

Pretty sure I stated 5 - 10 year battery life but I highly doubt a Hyundai battery will last ten years.

Then the battery pack. In the US, the Ioniq EV battery pack includes a lifetime warranty. Here in Australia, 8 year warranty or 160,000km

Even 8 years will be a stretch, I bet there will be range reductions written into the fine print of the warranty.

Having said all of the above:
* EV is not for everyone, granted. ( e.g. Those without a garage and have to park on the street ).
* More EV adoption will happen, because:
- Price parity will be achieved, sooner than later.
- Car manufacturers will stop selling EVs. VW, the largest, said so themselves ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-engines-to-be-launched-in-2026-idUSKBN1O32O6 )

The future is uncertain this is true but my comparison was a very tidy look at the CURRENT economics of that one choice between an ICE and a PEV. This is the decision many people across Australia will have to make, the whole cost benefit analysis of a new breed of car.

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Hi,

I think you are greatly underestimating the service life of lithium ion batteries - major improvements are occurring in this area. The batteries I’m using on my current project (which are also used in EVs) have a 20 year design life with a remaining capacity of 70% after 20 years. This is continuing to improve.

I’d further add that the Hyundai Elantra only has a 5 year warranty - one wouldn’t assume the engine would require replacement after 5 years.

You’ve got a great solar feed in tariff - I’m jealous! But you are in a small minority, and the utilities/governments would dearly love to be rid of it - and probably will before long. My system produces 40-45kWh/day for most of the year but I’m lucky to consume half of that with the rest sold back to the grid for a pittance. Many people are in my position and would love to use that energy instead of purchasing fuel.

EV vs ICE may not yet be at parity, but I’d suggest we much closer than your numbers suggest. All the same, thanks for the effort to explain your numbers.

GXY Price at posting: $2.20 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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