Originally posted by GCar
"The lithium price is still falling"
After all the hard work that people have put in here to explain that the idea of a "lithium price" is actually flawed due to there not being a single specific chemistry, and you using "reasoning" like this to claim that the sky is falling, just demonstrates the lack of understanding and comprehension that continues to litter these boards!
There is no "lithium price".
DYOR to find out why ORE claimed lower pricing. Doesn't apply to us.
On the subject of vehicle costs and battery life; the current state of affairs is not that relevant, it is the trend and progress that is important. Costs are dropping, batteries are improving, there is no denying that.
Soon enough, the total cost of ownership will be significantly less for "an equivalent" EV, and financing will allow for cheaper weekly/monthly all-in (or leasing) costs, and that is when it will be a no-brainer for the masses to buy an EV over and ICE vehicle.
Hockey stick demand, driven by pure economics.
DYOR on disruptice tech, exponential growth and tipping point effects.
It will be swift and brutal.
Many of us are invested for what is coming; and you can be sure it is coming!!
We aren't quite there yet, but we are getting closer every day.
Analysing the costs of an Ioniq or tesla or whatever, as it stands today, is rather irrelevant, as these are not the cars that represent the tipping point.
Stick around, and we'll look at costs in 2 years and 3 years from now, and then we'll start to see solid financial arguments for EV selection.
Subsidies exist now to accelerate the upatake and for environmental reasons, but in a few years they won't be needed.
Seen the battery cell production cost curves?
Remember when solar panels for your roof were prohibitively expensive?
Learn from the past and you can see where this is headed.
Not if; when.
Have some perspective, look at the horizon and invest accordingly imo.
You say "there is no lithium price" but ALB, the second largest producer has suffered a massive contraction in share price since the lithium price topped out in Q4 2017. At the same time as the phantom lithium price topped ALB's quarterly revenue and quarterly gross profit topped. I do not care what will happen in five years time, I don't care how many EV's will be built in 2030 I care what happens in the next 2 years. At the moment I care where the bottom is. I am not trying to ride the SP wave up and down over the next 12 years, I want to get in at the bottom and off at the top multiple times before we get to our destination.
The industry has been cycling at a rate of 3 years, so who really positions for 2030 now? Certainly not me.
