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GCar

13,697 Posts.

8306

07/01/19

10:50

Post #: 37042661
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Originally posted by Thomo ↑

Originally posted by GCar
"The lithium price is still falling"

After all the hard work that people have put in here to explain that the idea of a "lithium price" is actually flawed due to there not being a single specific chemistry, and you using "reasoning" like this to claim that the sky is falling, just demonstrates the lack of understanding and comprehension that continues to litter these boards!
There is no "lithium price".
DYOR to find out why ORE claimed lower pricing. Doesn't apply to us.

On the subject of vehicle costs and battery life; the current state of affairs is not that relevant, it is the trend and progress that is important. Costs are dropping, batteries are improving, there is no denying that.
Soon enough, the total cost of ownership will be significantly less for "an equivalent" EV, and financing will allow for cheaper weekly/monthly all-in (or leasing) costs, and that is when it will be a no-brainer for the masses to buy an EV over and ICE vehicle.
Hockey stick demand, driven by pure economics.
DYOR on disruptice tech, exponential growth and tipping point effects.

It will be swift and brutal.

Many of us are invested for what is coming; and you can be sure it is coming!!
We aren't quite there yet, but we are getting closer every day.
Analysing the costs of an Ioniq or tesla or whatever, as it stands today, is rather irrelevant, as these are not the cars that represent the tipping point.

Stick around, and we'll look at costs in 2 years and 3 years from now, and then we'll start to see solid financial arguments for EV selection.

Subsidies exist now to accelerate the upatake and for environmental reasons, but in a few years they won't be needed.

Seen the battery cell production cost curves?
Remember when solar panels for your roof were prohibitively expensive?
Learn from the past and you can see where this is headed.

Not if; when.

Have some perspective, look at the horizon and invest accordingly imo.

Hi Gcar,

Like many here you seem to think that lithium prices haven't fallen. I'm sure most here are aware of ORE's lower quality product and the many question marks over China's so called "spot price". You are right to say "there isn't a lithium price" because there are actually many, and they have ALL fallen in 2018. All except product sold under longer term contracts.

Benchmark are considered by many to be the Lithium price experts and here is their latest chart on lithium prices.

I can't see any lines going up and even though I am a lithium bull, I have no doubt that spodumene will be a bit weaker this year as well. Not for long hopefully but possibly for the next year or two.

Expand

Hi Thomo,
Yes, I am familiar with this chart!
We need to focus on what is truly relevant to us, and put the various reported prices into context.
For example, quality carbonate pricing from South America is essentially flat.
The Chinese crap quality stockpiles skewed the numbers a lot, as discussed here a lot recently!
As far as spod goes, let's wait to see what GXY's 2019 procing looks like before getting carried away by the doom and gloom stories.
My guess is that it will be about the same as 2018.
We will see.
Margins are healthy at current prices; even a slight decrease doesn't really matter in the scheme of things - the hockey stick is still taking shape!

Good luck

GXY Price at posting: $2.30 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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