A simple Australian PEV / ICE Comparison.
The Hyundai Ioniq is the cheapest PEV on the Australian market at $45,000, it has a range of 230km and can charge in 23 minutes on a commercial fast charger, 4.5 hours on a domestic fast charger and 12 hours from a standard wall outlet.
https://www.caradvice.com.au/706363/2019-hyundai-ioniq-pricing-specs/
The Ioniq is based on the Elantra, it has a similar shape, size, and style with 17 inch wheels and seating for 5 PAX. The Elantra costs $21,000 for a manual and $25,000 for an auto. It has a range of approximately 670 km based on a tank volume of 50 L and fuel efficiency of 7.4 L per 100km.
A
market study found that
"financial incentives, and particularly reductions in up-front purchase costs, are the incentives thatimpact most strongly on PEV purchase decisions, and that non-financial incentives play a supporting rather thanleading role."
Let's assume our average auto consumer is not discouraged by the up-front cost differential and actually considers the on-road cost savings associated with owning a PEV, according to Ergon:
The average price for electricity per kilowatt hour (kWh) in Australia is about $0.25 and it takes around 18 kWh to travel 100km in an average EV. So, it will cost approximately $4.50 in electricity charges to travel 100km.
https://www.ergon.com.au/network/smarter-energy/electric-vehicles/charging-your-electric-vehicle
Fuel prices are currently $1.35 in my state which means the Elantra will cost around $9.99 to cover the same 100 km as the Ioniq. The average Australian motorist drives 15,530 km per year however this includes all vehicles the average for small vehicles is 13,520 km and the average for a large SUV is 18,350 km. Assuming our auto consumer is an average small vehicle driver (hence the Elantra/Ioniq) his total recharging cost would be around $608.40 with an Ioniq and his refueling cost would be around $1,350.65 with the Elantra. This results in a net fuel cost saving of $742.25 over one year.
The final aspect is maintenance or non-fuel running costs such as servicing. The electric motor has far fewer moving parts and requires less servicing however this overlooks one fundamental difference between a fuel tank and a lithium power pack. A fuel tank can be refilled for 20 years without requiring replacement while battery packs require replacing every 5 - 10 years depending on calendar and cycling degradation.
https://www.energywise.govt.nz/on-the-road/electric-vehicles/ev-battery-life-and-charging/
Battery packs are currently priced at around $200 per kWh which works out at around $5,600 for the Ioniqs 28 kWh pack. This may come down over time in line with the chart below. In the interests of not getting too deep into this, let's consider that the requirement to purchase a new $5,000 battery every five to ten years offsets the additional cost of servicing the ICE itself.
https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/electric-cars-battery-life-materials-cost#.XDBjcVwzaUk
In buying a pure electric vehicle this auto consumer is essentially paying an extra $20,000 a year in order to save $742 per year. Let's assume a conservative discount rate of 6% and a residual asset value of $10,000 after 6 years.
That gives this one single choice a NPV of negative $9,151, almost half the cost of the Hyundai Elantra that has more than twice the range of the Ioniq. This is why the PEV is not ready for mass market, I do hope both cost per kWh and energy density can be improved but at this point I see actual real life technical limitations before PEV tech can be mass produced for the average consumer.
