Banter and General Comments, page-3003

On the forum of another stock that I own, we had a robust discussion about this term "deadline" that is often used by posters to describe when things were supposedly going to be completed by.

The harsh but true reality is that these companies don't state deadlines, they state targets and expectations, and experience tells us that we should, more often than not, expect unforeseen things to occur that will push timing out beyond the estimates.

I'm sure there are plenty here with more direct experience than me, but I have certainly seen this over and over again in the mining industry over the past couple of decades, with both time and cost estimates.
Plants budgeted at $1.5b blowing out to $3b !!
2-year expansions taking 4 years !!
Final approval and signatures on relatviely small contracts taking many many months for all sorts of strange reasons (yes, including the "strange" end-of-year "shutdowns" by some of our South American friends!)

I do agree with you that we should be hearing more from the company about how things are progressing and what types of issues are holding things up beyond previous guidance. There has been some action at SDV for some years already, as we have seen from satellite pics, and it would be nice to have more info around what exactly is going on there..

I also, however, still have full confidence in where we are headed in the future, and yes, I certainly would (and have) recommended GXY to friends and family recently, at these ridiculous price levels we have seen. My disclaimer is DYOR but I have put my money where my mouth is.
I mean seriously, expected earnings from MC for 2019 are at least $100m, and our enterprise value is essentially only 4 times that! (Yes, this is when the POSCO money comes through, but the deal is done with only formalities remaining). This EV-earnings ratio is absolutely silly, especially when one considers the cash at hand and what we have planned for the next 3/4/5 years that will up earnings significantly.
To me, this presents a no-brainer investment, if one can wait out the manipulation that is ongoing. It won't (can't) last too long, because every month/quarter we are ticking off more derisking milestones, progressively lowering risk towards becoming a larger and more profitable company. The macro environment of the sector is also getting stronger and stronger each year, as big auto slowly concede the defeat of ICE and the eventual dominance of EVs. Big $$ now committed as we all know.

Those insto's have been up to no good with their "analysis" and bs stories and forecasts, and have leveraged the faith that many people have in what they say. Hopefully some have learned that they are not on our side, they are essentially working against us and spread whatever nonsense helps their cause at the time.

My gut and head say we will be fine in the years to come, as we get our other ops into production and then imagine what we can do with those earnings. Do we know exactly when? No, but that is the industry. Perhaps we will feel better if the company tells us a bit (lot?) more, but this won't affect progress imo. I think the salt in the wound is that the insto's have played this in 2018, causing many to become annoyed with the temporary (imo) loss of value of their portfolios.

A short covering panic combined with the bend in the hockey stick could get real real interesting real fast. Who knows when that might happen... But the longer is takes, the more likely it becomes soon!

I keep doing the maths and can't see how we will not be successful in coming years. In the meantime it's all noise and opportunity imo.

Not advice.
DYOR and good luck