Lets explore these statements a little:1 kwh= around .95kg LCE A...

Lets explore these statements a little:

1 kwh= around .95kg LCE A tesla 75kwh use 71.25kg LCE.

This is actually in line with freely available information that does suggest Tesla use around 0.9 kg per kwh however Tesla is not the only battery producer nor even the largest. The NMC532 is the primary battery type produced by LG CHEM with a standard requirement of 0.55 kg per kwh and this company produces more than twice the amount of batteries as Tesla.




1000kg carbonate = $14000 or $14/kg. 71.25 × 14= $997.5 of carbonate for each tesla. 1000Kwh= 1Mwh 1000Mwh= 1Gwh.

Thank you Captain Obvious but you seem to have then skipped over how many batteries will ACTUALLY be demanded and gone straight to planned battery capacity. This is interesting because you act as if planned battery supply will somehow drive battery demand when in actual fact it is the reverse but let's not dwell on that point since you chose not to.

2 × 50GWH(100GWH) = the world total battery grade supply of 2018.

Actually according to Benchmark Minerals just the top five producers already have capacity to produce around 169 GWh of Lion Cells:




https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/who-is-winning-the-global-lithium-ion-battery-arms-race/

And around 300 kt of lithium to do it with:




https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/lithium-supply-revisited/

Not saying I trust Benchmark Minerals more than I trust your figures.

1450GWH battery factories are planned to be built by 2028. Or 14.5 times the current world supply. 

I figure we will need around 1.5 TWh by 2030 so I will give you the 1450 GWh but if we assume that the top five producers are not the only producers then I would suggest there is actually at least 200 GWh capacity already in the system which means we would be able to halve the rate of growth to around seven times across the next ten years.

1450% ÷10 years =145% increase needed each year just to meet demand. 100% increase is not even possible.

As mentioned earlier we don't need 100% growth per year however installed capacity did grow 100% between 2015 - 2016 (so it is possible) and the industry looks set to have another period of rapid growth with China alone adding 56.3% capacity in just the last year and LG Chem continuing to rapidly expand production across the globe. Tesla has broken ground on a new plant in China that should be at least capable of doubling it's current Nevada capacity.


On account of all this, it seems obvious that capacity is being built quite rapidly and likely ahead of demand. If EV demand does not match battery supply when EV producers go out to sell the "mass market EV's" there will be a collapse in the utilization rates of these plants and obviously excess raw materials in the system if raw producers are aiming at nameplate battery capacity instead of underlying battery demand. 

IMHO the big players are not maneuvering for a short term increase in lithium prices, they are maneuvering to dominate long term installed capacity at every level of the battery supply chain and that entails oversupply to drive out competition. Battery producers look to be over building capacity and due to the requirement to lock in supply this over build is flowing downhill from there but at the end of the day no one even cares because at the moment size and scale matters and those with neither will get gobbled up or spat out. The real value in lithium companies at the moment are the high value long life assets that predators are increasingly circling for 2030 and beyond because margin growth is going to be non-existent for years.

But also, let's not discount the value of EV hype to the equation