Banter and General Comments, page-35

In this forum we have probably done quite a bit of in depth analysis but I guess it can't hurt to present a few simple calculations.
Below I plot N the number (millions) of EVs sold per year from 2010 through to 2016. These are International Energy Agency data so they are probably reasonably reliable.

Fitting an exponential function to the data gives me a k value of 0.472. The exponential is the same function we can use to describe compound interest and population growth.
Using some simple math one can get the value of the doubling time (T2) at present growth rate.
If I have things correct (my math aint that great) then the value of T2 = 1.5 years. That is on the basis of the data we have so far for EV uptake we would expect the number of EVs on the road to double approximately every 1.5 years. Even if I am out by a factor of two, the doubling time would still be impressive. Can the industry supply that many vehicles, that many batteries and that much lithium?



If you ask me, this curve may even steepen with time as the urgency to ditch fossil fuels becomes even more obvious. I mean so obvious so that even an Australian politician gets it!

It always amazes me how many people don't understand, or at least appreciate, exponential functions. If we really did appreciate what happens to the doubling time even with modest growth rates we would all be like Warren Buffet.

Disclaimer: It is possible that I have screwed up so please check for yourselves.