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09/06/19

13:20

Post #: 38979683
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Originally posted by Ozyoioi: ↑

So here we are, back near a 36 month low.

Summary of GXY's current status (AUD figures unless shown otherwise)

* Market cap = $600m
* Estimated cash on hand = $406m
* Estimated tax owing (less confirmed tax rebate at AGM) = ($82m)
* Cash margin from 2Q confirmed sales (30kt spod, say @ USD $660 sales price, all in cost of USD $400) = $11.3m
* Spodumene on hand, already costed but not sold = ~40kt @ USD $600 sales price ~ $30m
* 12% of LPD = $12m
* 12% of A40 = $25m

Liquid value = $400m AUD (~$1 per share)

So that leaves $200m to share between:
- Mt.Cattlin - a mine earning probably $30m-$40m p.a. free cash flow @ spod price of $600/t (which is likely conservative for the rest of the year)
- James Bay (project currently in regulatory approvals stage, North American market access)
- Sal de Vida - project, a quarter of which sold for $400m in the peak of the market. Ganfeng very recently put in $250m for a share of (and offtake) from a smaller brine operation at LAC. new tech being trialled, results expected in 2H 2019.

Heavily indebted single-resource Li plays with operating mines are currently priced $300m-$400m.
PLS for some amazing reason is priced at $1.2bn (big resource but if all this scaremongering is to bebelieved, PLS is worthless too)
Liontown has what appears to be a great resource with no funding and pathway is priced at $170m!

Folks, the value is here. Not saying it wont fall further due to short term sentiment but all it takes is one news event or a turn in sentiment and this should be sitting on a half bag or bag from this price.

The irony is that rusted on longs are probably now too scared to buy due to fear of falling further, and potentially selling so near long term lows and support - it's actually the ideal risk-on time to average down or buy.

I'm going to be watching which way the shorts go - they've played this well down to here so very interested to see if shorts are increasing, decreasing or holding steady.

GLTA!

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Good anaylsis, but I think there will be more spod than that by the end of Q2.

- We have 35kt sitting there at the end of Q1 to be sold in H2 at H1 prices, and
- Producing at 20kt+ per month (April's run rate) or 45 to 50kt target production, there should be 55kt of spod even if it's not all shipped (35kt + unshipped ~ 20kt) by June 30.

GXY Price at posting: $1.47 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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