This may upset a few people. Will try and be balanced as possible. Points both bad and good.
Anyone that have bought in after july 2017 and are still holding is red in value.
Anyone buying now will see profit, this include shortsellers covering.
If you bought and hold, you are an investor. If you bought and sold or sold and bought for a profit, you are a trader. If you bough and sold at loss, you belong to 80% in the stockmarket, don't be supprise.
Companies do share buyback to defend shareholders value. This company hasn't done so, even when the fund is there and SP is below asset value. The directors have not come forward.
Market conditions can change within 12 months, it has. The company has been talking in terms of years. What is getting done in coming months? 3,6,12,18 months.
April conference call, the question was asked will there be 3x15 shipments. The answer fron AT was yes. Planned shipment will match production. This question was asked twice.
An update on production in April, reconfirmed production but shipment was guidance. The schedule for port shipment at the moment, only allow 2 shipments this quarter. The ship is on its way (was in indonesia) with only 17kt gross capacity. All this was supposed to be organized and finalized in april.
AT now does half work load and responsibility, still on same income and bonuses, unless i've missed something. AT should have been given share from a buyback not issuing new shares. Taking cash would have seen half his bonuses in tax, from my point of view.
Without the third shipment, 10-15m will be missing this qtr, from production. All production is already contracted for next three years . If the shipment is next month at a price $100/t cheaper, the total will only be a difference of 1.5m. At $50/t $750000. This will not change the years balance sheet but a red mark to the management team from the institutions. AT's missed targets have worked against retailers.
Simon, new to be CEO has a record of getting projects built, building means spending. His background is nickel, a material used in batteries. He has chemistry knowledge. We'll find out.
Tax savings are already 10-15m. One late shipment will be a grain of sand on a beach. Short seller will make this a big deal.
The institutions support the wage and bonuses. They have been benefiting from shorting and lending shares. Retailers have been squeezed. Some have believed management have been working for the institutions, they have. The majority shareholders.
My guess is, the company has decided to send 45kt total for h1 at q1 production and grade. The higher grade and purity from april production and the rest of year in second half. Lets wait and see. April production indicate 21kt @319(cost) x 9months =189kt+45. The total production and sales volume will be 10-15% higher than the estimated 180-210kt guidance at this rate. The financial year is end of December for Galaxy, is not June.
The SP can go anywhere. I believe the short covering is due to Simon coming on board as well as SP at multi year low and below asset value.
There has been no oversupply. Not much lithium minerals /chemicals have been produced for battery grade matching demand. There's been a shortage of US $ for chinese industries to operate. Has been difficult to convert yuan to US $ in china.
Rooster is bullish, he travels and meet directors. This is a good thing. The lithium train is moving to a better place in 6-12 months. Investors paying business class are sitting in the luggage compartments, bullied by shortsellers. Industries will go to mines for supply if the converters play them around. Traditional auto makers face real extinction if they don't have chemicals supply. Investments in infrastructure are hundreds of billions, someone forgot the mine supply. Ooppps.
The company is making good profit margin, zero debt. At 50% deposit, 50% borrowed,they can build SDV on their own (fully funded). MtC can cover the interest even at 15% and still profitable. No new mines will come on line, the existing are struggling to get finance. The customers have set their converter chemistry to MtC, to change from MtC spod would cost them 6-12 months of income. The battery orders currently stand at more than the available battery grade LCE. SP value total asset, less than MtC earnings over three years.
Galaxy contract matrix doesn't allow the price to move up and down at the same pace as others. The floor is around 700/t, my guess. The minerals in the spod determine end use. This determine the spod price, not the percentage.
Some point to consider before trading resume.
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