Banter and General Comments, page-7120

I agree with your post.

However, my post was more about the forest and not the trees. What I was trying to do was highlight that disruption can occur so fast that the majority of people won't see it coming.

Have you seen the movie the big short on Netflix? The entire community was so busy making money they never looked in at what was slowly happening out there. What appeared to be a very slow increase in foreclosure quickly turned into a storm. Pretty much 99.9% of the investment community got this wrong. We can talk about many examples or companies, smart phones, Kodak etc.etc.

The key to my message is just because the hoard is behaving or acting in one particular way does not mean that it is correct. Disruption comes out of nowhere and blind sides people.

I own many stocks, but the only one that I pay so much attention to is GXY because I see the disruption occurring. I spend most of my time researching and trying to understand what the auto market is doing. The signs are there and the way I read them momentum is building quickly.

Those like Norway with strong government support simple show how quickly things can turn around when all the variables are in place for a change to happen. There are many variables - models, price, features, maintenance, speed, distance etc. It is clear that China and Europe will start to set the pace. Changes there will change other variables. For example, one important variable with ICE vehicles is scale. If scale is reduced, price to build and profit ratios begin to change. It is all very complex.

The signs for me are this:
- more and more companies are launching EV's or starting to go the EV way
- batteries and access to vehicles is a problem. Auto companies can't get access and this is creating huge waiting lists everywhere. Even in backwards Australia the waiting list to get a Camry Hybrid is 4months. Why?
- size and value of contracts for batteries are increasing. No joke in order for these companies to be able to sign what they have agreed to they need to get their house in order. There are so many models that will be released coming in 2020. The supply chain needs to be working at full speed right now to be ready for what is coming in 2020 and beyond. When model Y comes on board and VW goes full steam that in itself will pull momentum forward.

Is all this going to happen today? No. It all takes times. People need to be aware are they are trader or an investor.

If people see themselves with a day to 1year time frame they are a trader. They need to see things differently to how I write. All they need to be concerned about is momentum and charts. Who cares in their case what the fundamentals are.

If people see themselves as an investor they really need to be looking at a 3+ year time frame. The key for them is the narrative. The key is to buy at a scale and pace that reflects that investment strategy and when that disruption or great strategy will pay off. Weakness like now can be great buying opportunities.

I have written many times before about my time scales and anyone interested can go back though my posts. But, since I started posting about a year ago I talked about that major goals won't start to get kicked until 2020. That is what my research has been telling me. Therefore, I have not been accumulating expecting to be making dollars today, I am accumulating because I am expecting things to become positive from 2020, with an expectation that momentum should start to change towards the second half of this year.

I don't know what more I can say. People need to do their own research, make their own decisions and blame or pat themselves on the back based on their own actions.

The reason I first picked GXY was as a punt. Then when GXY hit back down towards $2.50 I started to become interested again and did greater research because the dynamics are there that if the sector would tank, the fundamentals are there to make the company last one of the longest. Those that survive are super winners!

Money in the bank, profitable, great assets, huge potential for resource upgrades, ahead of the curb and now it is pretty evident that the company won't sell out just for the sake of making a deal, make me happy to be a holder regardless of the share price.

Even I sometimes get aggravated by communication and can kicking down the road, but always down the road with a little reflection we generally find out why or that it was done because it was the best choice at the time.

Sorry, I have gone completely off topic from since when I started, I am sure lots of people will disagree with what I said, but that is the point of HC to share ideas and thoughts.