Banter and General Comments, page-7973

Remember what William Preece said about telephones in 1879? He was a smart, capable guy, but more or less missed the mark by a mile.

He said, more or less, that while Americans were embracing the telephone - and that the extent to which they were was exaggerated in reports - it was less necessary in the United Kingdom because of the shorter distance and the "superabundance" of messengers.

The Australian newspaper, in their infinite wisdom, very recently published an article arguing that very few people in Australia intended to buy an EV in the next ten years. In 1999 how many people planned to buy a smartphone by 2009?

What we saw in this case was a flurry of enthusiasm from some pundits who wanted to be the Fukuyama of EVs by making big predictions, which were then dampened by the fact that an entire industry radically recalibrating itself can be a slow and difficult process, followed by other pundits - often for ideological reasons - arguing that the pace of change would remain very slow.

But why the hell would it? Think about it. Manufacturers are investing in expanding their productive capacity for EVs. Nissan and VW have a fairly small number of EVs rolling off the assembly line now, but how many will they be pumping out and shipping around the world in just 18 months?

We will see gradual growth at first, then a very quick growth in certain key markets as the economies of scale kick in and people can purchase $20,000 EVs.

The first Industrial Revolution didn't happen overnight baby.