Banter and General Comments, page-8587

The key take-out for me from the overnight results releases from ALB and LTHM relates to the supply dynamics that both organisations provided when delivering their numbers and industry outlook(s).
Specifically, they refer to the mixed inventory and supply situation that has key players reassessing their respective capacity expansion plans.
It is this assertion of the Morgan Stanley's & Mac Banks that the market will be in oversupply for quite some time. And this is perpetuated by the sheer number of new start-ups looking to deliver new supply to the market. These fledgling players are all about ramping up their supply to get their supply costs down and to generate cashflows.
However,the big players like LTHM and ALB can afford to take their foot off the supply pedal and manage their financial positions more reasonably than the new producers.
And this is what the financial glitterati want the investors to believe. That all producers are in the same camp and have to ratchet up supply at all costs.
As the Li market matures and we see industry rationalisation (read: little players get swallowed up by bigger players), we will see a more orderly supply situation prevail and the market shenanigans we have witnessed over the past 18 - 24 months won't be as prominent (as they are now).
With 2 of the big 5 highlighting moderation in their production pipelines, the analysts will need to re-run their rulers over the supply/ demand equation. It will become very apparent, very quickly, the supply side of the equation is not what the financial bystanders thought it would be.
For industry investors,the message is pick the right "opportunity" - one that has the ability to ramp up (and down) supply, one that is not beholden to financiers, one that can produce high quality product at lowest quartile costs and one that has product and geographic diversity.
There's only one producer currently in that category - yep, that's right - it's GXY.