The following points are all based on cash. Their accounting methodology has me a little puzzled.
- If we have 15kt of revenue from q2 into q3, that's great. I wasn't aware of this.
- Does anyone know our payment terms? Is it 2 weeks from shipment??
- Assuming we ship 60kt in q3 as per the call, and get 15kt of revenue from q2, then we'll get 75kt of revenue in q3. Regardless, we'll see 60kt of cash at least. That mid-sept shipment money of 15kt may or may not come in q3.
- On the production side, the coy will still produce 45kt - 50kt. So we'll have costs and cash outflows from that. But at least in cash terms, we get 60kt - 75kt of cash, but only 45kt - 50kt of cash outflow.
- So I really expect q3 to be cash flow positive.
The above will also be repeated in q4 (more revenue and lower costs) due to our stock piles, and assuming our customers don't shaft us.
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