I've finally had a bit of time to do some digging into African...

I've finally had a bit of time to do some digging into African lithium. In short, I haven't got any closer to finding 6 projects with grades in the 2.5% range. The big projects are tagged to listed companies and those companies haven't announced sales. Its therefore not clear what BYD are looking to buy. A recent article put BYD's battery market share at 11.9% so a massive projects would be needed to meet their lithium needs. I just don't see how lithium projects that size could fly under the radar of everyone (industry experts have also struggled to understand the reports).

One possibility is that these six mines are smaller to mid-sized Lepidolite deposits not Spod. They are perhaps 0.5% to 1% and the 2.5% grade is what would be shipped to BYD after concentration. It would therefore be the equivalent of 5.5%-6% Spod grades not 1% to 1.5% Spod. I know this is clutching at straws, but the whole thing doesn't make sense. Even this explanation may struggle with the in production in 2022 references.

So what is known about Spodumene Lithium in Africa?
The report below was written in 2021 by Kathryn Goodenough, Eimear Deady and Richard Shaw. It includes a lot of background research around Lithium production in Africa. There is no "so that's what they are likely to be buying" moment in reading the report.
https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/530698/1/Lithium_in_Africa_Report.pdf

So what are the Larger projects by listed companies:

• AVZ has its huge Manono project in the DRC (Congo). It has ownership issues that are trying to be resolved but BYD isn't part of that mix. Its also a few years away from production. Dec21 slides noted a FID in Q4 2021 which clearly hasn't happened. That previous production timeline of Q2 2023 will be slipping.
• Leo Lithium/FFX has its 108Mt @ 1.45% resource (Goulamina project) in Mali. FFX/Leo haven't announced a sale (and its not into production until 1st half 2024 at the earliest)
• There's the Ewoyaa JV project in Ghana between Piedmont and LSE listed Atlantic Lithium. This project hasn't been sold.
• The Arcadia project (Zimbabwe) in was taken over last year by Huayou last year for US$422m. Unless resold, its not this project.
• The Bougouni (Mali) project is owned by Kodal Minerals PLC (London exchange) they aren't talking about a sale on their website
• The Zulu (Zimbabwe) prospect owned by Premier African Minerals. Their website notes its generally regarded as the largest undeveloped lithium bearing pegmatite in Zimbabwe. Their mineral resource is 20.1Mt @ 1.06%. An update of 13 June noted development plans but no sale to BYD.

The report linked above notes one in-production mine but Bikita project in Zimbabwe but as of 2021 this lithium wasn't being used in battery supply chains. As an in-production mine, it is a candidate but old records don't have it being large enough, or with a high enough grade. Also the majority of this project was bought by Sinomine Resources in 2022 ($180m for 74%). An article from 18May2022 notes an intention to invest $200m in a chemical grade battery processing plant (chemical grade not battery grade). In terms of scale they expect exports of US$300m [per year] which doesn't provide the scale BYD would need.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202205180434.html

The Kenticha Project (Ethiopia) has produced Tantalum and is owned by Abyssinian Metals. Its big at 67.4Mt but the grade's low at 0.73%. Their "high-grade" element of the resource is 47.3Mt @ 0.85%. There is also no front-page references to selling this resource and just look at the grades.

There's a Kamativi (Zimbabwe) tin tailings lithium project that Zimbabwe Lithium is exploring. They have an indicated resource of 26.32Mt @ 0.58%. Their website notes the project could be brought on-stream in nine months after concluding financing and is low cost. The grade is super-low and below what sometimes is used as the cut-off for Australian company JORC resources. This project isn't going to supply 10%+ of the world market. Also the main page of the website doesn't note a sale.

On 11 July 2019 Lithium Consolidated Ltd got three additional lithium exploration licences in addition to two held for an area in Alto Ligonha (Mozambique). They have since renamed Tempest Minerals Limited (TEM) and appear to have sold the licences into Premier African Minerals. Premier's website has an under development page called "Ligonha Gold project". Premier appears to be behind in its reporting with no financials since Sep 2021. They may have found and sold something but if it was more than exploration licences I'd have expected more news.

The Karibib project (Namibia) is 80% owned by Lepidico (LPD). A May 2022 presentation put their lithium resource at 11.87Mt @ 0.45% being one of several products being mined. They have a 5kt/yr off-take over 7 years. They are small, low-grade and still in development with no indication of being sold.

The Uis project (Namibia) is run by Afritin Mining. They have an inferred 71.5Mt @ 0.63% of Lithium. The operation is primarily around tin at the moment and has achieved nameplate of 0.72ktpa. They are part way through a tin expansion to 2.8ktpa of tin and note plans for 60ktpa lithium concentrate production and further expansions to 480ktpa. The project does not appear to have been sold and is based on concentrating a grade that starts pretty low (0.63%).

There will be other exploration, but exploration doesn't turn into production within months.