Stage 1 + Duplicate DMS Cash Flow 3.pdfREAD ME SECOND ....From...

Stage 1 + Duplicate DMS Cash Flow 3.pdf


READ ME SECOND ....

From first post, have looked at a possible expansion of DMS plant, and generated some numbers. Are rough and guesses only, still have no idea so just guess.

The scenario is for duplication of DMS with additional 175ktpa of 5.5% SC.

Have timed it for mid 2024, say July-Sept 2024, for following:
- any earlier will need action now, however with Stage 1 still in construction I believe unwise to start initial works (clearing, topsoil removal, earthworks for a site 50-100m to the west of existing}. Just too many things happening in confined area. Finish off Stage 1, then start duplication say Feb 20245, after 'the wet'.
- majority of engineering done (take plans of Stage 1 from draw, photocopy, and with marker put Stage 2 into header box, engineering done. OK still more for electricity, water, drainage etc), so some engineering to be done.
- with CR raising and $10M of funding for staff expansion for studies, engineering, etc is another job to do.
- long term delivery plant orders should be NO real issue, if happy with Stage 1, just re-order, however best to wait till early 2023 and ensure what we got is OK
- who is to build? Preferably Primero, as now doing O&M, and already done. I believe are off to Covalent downtown lovely Widgiemooltha for Mt Holland DMS, so may have to wait for them to return. By all means book them, but on-site before July / August 2023 ??
- and then there is BP33. OK assuming no issue with quantity / LOM, etc is still issues. An analogy, your 1/2 inch hose at home will only get so much flow through it, and for BP33 portal & incline maybe a restriction to feed two DMSs. Option to upgrade or duplicate, but for security of supply a second feed could be desirable. So to Carlton we look, as Grants open pit starts to expire.
- Carlton U/G mine is earmarked for advancement. Is highlighted as part of advanced studies, so if do an ANT survey, drilling for resource upgrade and possible mine management / plan upgrade will take time. The board has offered bonus shares for KMP to get Carlton at DFS level by March 2023, so can assume FID soon after, FEED and detail design to follow. Then mid 2023 or later is a time frame, then to tender, to build, etc.. Say early 2024?
- and finally then pic from CR presso, one from Tall88 post yesterday which had head grade and outputs on also two words "Project Expansion". The one on right of pic for LOM, and the other (blue bars on top of Stage 1 DMS), started from FY2024/25. Nothing telling, but another clue.

So with this timing, same assumptions as for my previous post on Spod prices, to auction etc, and with lots of $ assumptions of Capex and Opex and new spreadsheet came up with this.

Again, the numbers for FY2024/25 and 2025/26 of over $1.4B are wrong. The expansion mode I believe will be still on, this time for LiOH plant, and cap expenditures of $500M-$600M will be occurring, so profits will be down to $800-900M. Boy what a problem .

And again, does not include any dividends paid, so expect even lower numbers, I am not complaining

So just some ponderings on a Sunday arvo, feel like in an unreal world. Just so, so so much Core has to offer.

My conclusion?. HOLD...

Go Core Go