I think you've summarised it well. There's no underlying logic to the comments here around 70c, $1, $1.50 per share etc. The senseless pumping and fluffy posts on the spod price and how many EVs will be produced in 2028 take precedence over any discussion of the fundamentals. When people do actually break these down to prove they are waaay outside any reason, it's a witch hunt of searching through 2 years of people's post history to find out if they ever went red on a stock (ie it becomes personal).
None of the replies have actually attempted to recalculate anything. Kiwi just writes another 1000 word essay that amounts to points like "its not 10Mt left, its actually 9.3Mt so you're wrong!" or "You're using figures which are out of date from december, the real ones haven't been published yet and no one knows" and "The capex is 10% of the cost but you're +/- 5% so the figures are way off!". The rest is speculation that the speculation is incorrect (camps, ignoring i did factor in $800 spod price, etc)
The point was a value of 1.8B is absolutely dumb even if spod tripled tomorrow.
(20min delay)