I think Rummy was referring to the NTG. Royalties have to be paid to the Canadians for their loan but the majority of the royalties paid have to go to the NTG.
Regarding the figures stuff
Point 1 - "CXO has 15Mt-20Mt+ of spod (proven/predicted whatever lets just call it that for now) across various sites over a 1000km^2 area."
Sure, lets agree that for the time being, we probably have 15-20 MT to call it safe. If it goes over that in the resource upgrade or subsequent exploration, that's peachy and the bottom line is improved.
Point 2 - "In the next few years CXO only plans to tap Calton, BP33, and Grants (it was previously just Grants and BP33 but i think this has been changed). This is only 5.7Mt (for now)."
Using the figures just from the DFS (which are way out of date) 6.13 for measured, indicated and inferred. But I'm pretty sure there have been releases since then which have upgraded BP33. 5.7 is a serious low ball and one way or another, is about to be majorly altered once that upgrade finally drops given it was there to shore up carltons and grants.
Point 3 - "These 2-3 sites will cost 85M+ to get up and running and the other remaining sites are not touched until future DFS are put together and funded."
A substantial amount of that 85 million is actually money put aside for pre-stripping overburden etc. While I'm sure it will cost quite a bit, I would not be surprised if it was an overestimate for subsequent stripping after the first 3 locations. But even if it isn't most of the costs are in establishing the crushing facilities, the loading docks, the mine camp etc etc. These things are likely to be fixed and while it may mean that trucks need to bring the raw spod rock to the crusher, I think the costs are likely not going to get too out of hand.
Part 4 "The other 10Mt or so are at different locations and there's been no real study on the cost of mining these (that I have seen). But they are a different pit/hole in the ground and have separate and additional costs above the 85M."
This is incorrect. It is less than 10 MT at the moment just using the DFS figures alone, but yes those other locations will have associated costs with them. I will point out however, that most of the costs will likely be in the one camp such as the crushing plant etc and that if our latest potential acquisition turns out favourably, much infrastructure will be inherited if the deal does go ahead which may significantly lower expected costs in future if our Megatonnage does in fact really take off.
Part 5 - In my numbers I have considered all known Mtage (and even included finding more) and added to the CAPEX at a proportional rate per Mt in-line with the first site. it may be less or more - no one knows. Even if you cut it by 30%, it only adds 100m or less to the 10y outcome.
Even if you cut what? I'm not sure were or what your cutting here by 30%?
I'm not trying to start a scrap with you because I think exploring the numbers is a beneficial thing to do for everyone to look at and discuss but I will be honest in saying that I think your calculations are beyond conservative and that they are properly wrong. Now admittedly, 200 million bucks isn't the be all and end all but when your estimating 400-600 million, your talking about a third extra in pure profits left over.
That trickles down to shares potentially being valued a third more, not including any further very very likely good news stories that we will have in future, such as our total resource doubling or tripling, our gold field JORC happening, our actual sign off price on the Spodumene being significantly higher (our figures show we could be over 800 USD a ton asking price now) or numerous other things that we now have the money to do which could go very well for us if we accomplish them with our other projects.
I think the real issue here when we have these discussions is that there are too many assumed variables. Until we at least knock the Updated DFS on the head or perhaps most realistically, get most or all of our off-takes signed, it is very hard to make proper estimates about the future value of the company.
Expand
