Nice post, and thanks for dropping me in, really no problem, but you have to read my dribble.. haahaaa.
So to your direct question, sense need for 90-100kt of product on the ROM, minimum of 80kt.Why? Well minimum 80 kt, as is the magic number where bonuses (free shares) to key management apply, so sense big drive by management to get free sh...., oopps .. I mean to have 80kt+ on the ROM. More, because may be some minor disruptions (will explain later) to access. So 90-100kt good target, if little less then still all protected.
Difficult to tell what is there now, Sentinel (eye in sky 100km+ above no good) and the photo last week from CSI did show a fair sized thick layer of product (one with excavator with rock breaker operating in the background). Feel might be close to desired target, but with 15000t off to port, then push for more.
In regard to second DSO shipment, hard to say 50/50, is dependent as you say with other works. If DMS commissioning goes well NO, if some delays YES, decision maybe in next 1-3 weeks.
DMS
- is the key to all, where is it at?
- Still no comms from Core, so all guesses. Saw on Primero website few weeks ago (when announced O&M contract award) an obscured picture of plant which showed final steel columns in place for final upper areas, and pic this week from gate.. would guess construction works at 90-95% complete, looks like tankage there, other major components, very promising.. The $6M advised for night shift, I sense also bonuses included if finish by..... . So big drive on-going. All good.
- I have no idea of where the link from tailings thickener tank to tailings dams (located in the middle of the waste stockpile) is at. Issue for me, mainly as don't know. Saw nothing early on of pipe laying, etc. Am assuming the slurry pipeline (guess) will be laid shortly. Usually above ground plastic (HDPE) pipe bolted together with some substantial thrust blocks at bends etc, and underground when crossing haul roads. So maybe 1-2+ weeks of work. Herein problem, Cat777 trucks on haul roads to ROM and pipelaying teams on edge of haul roads DO NOT mix. Never a good outcome between man and machine when they meet , so think the pipelaying areas will be quarantined, so NO haul truck access, hence limited access to ROM, so only rock waste from open pit to southern end of stockpile areas. May occur next month, or over Xmas shutdown?, if one?, do not know but need pipeline as part of getting DMS plant up and running. No idea where this is at?
- Need water, raw water dam still looks empty, assume bore headworks in place, so need to fill the dams at some stage. I notice no major dam to west of minesite area, so when being built? or if process water balance, initially, it is not required. Think too late to start building dams now, with wet coming?, so may be not required till early next year. Just do not know.
- So back to DMS, with construction finishing in weeks (just say early to mid-December), then pre-commissioning and commissioning phases can start.
Pre-commissioning
- electric power to plant so live but nothing running yet.
- instrumentation, all installed, tested, calibrated and "talking"
- process control, depending upon what type? Can programme and bench test PLCs at factory, so should have been done by NOW. Can link all together like "Plug and Play" software and ensure all communicating and doing as told, on-site. Difficult to guage, or potential problem area, but doable..
- water test, no leaks, etc
- and then can start to operate everything with just water through the system, I call it a Wet Dry Run, gets a laugh, but is important, check to see if everything is talking to each other, is important.
- control room, most important. Need to ensure power, air-con works, arm chair, kettle, fridge, stocked with tim tams, big screen TV operating (is cricket season coming up)... oh and of course all comms to plant work and effectively have control.
So all these processes can be undertaken straight after construction finished, say over early to mid December or when 'closed down' for Xmas. Yep, I see no reason why the DMS plant can not be fully & effectively operational, if only processing water, by 1 January ( r whenever the first Monday is next year). Could even be earlier, being conservative.
Come January 1iish, start of ore feed process into plant as part of "Commissioning", and the whole plantsite is NOW on a production footing. That is, ore feed and some very minor SC5.5 product being stockpiled, can expect the plant to cough and splutter a bit, but I can not see major issues (will be some), so commercial production (whatever that is, say at 25-35% efficiency) end of January?, with continuing ramp up through February, March, say 50% , 60%, etc..
In all honestly never commissioned a DMS plant, done other things. But looking at the processes, can not see great difficulty. It is gravity feed, in top and out the bottom. Only a relatively few control or variable points, like SG control in cyclones, so need to feed in other product to thicken, and water spray on product to lower SG, some control but... etc. DO not want to under-estimate, is not easy, is complex, but it should not be like rocket science or a hydrometallurgical process (roasting and acid leaching etc.) Not changing the product, just concentrating it. Am confident.
Achieving DFS recovery rates may take a little longer, blending and grade control from ROM, and fine tuning the plant will take time.
First, or start of, SC5.5% out the door by early to mid February 2023. 70-79kt out the door by June 30.
Just my guess / expectation / it can be done. But who really knows???, me, just guesses, have to accept that Core know a lot more and have it under control.
So back to second DSO shipment again?, hard to say 50/50, is dependent as you say with the DMS commissioning, my guess NO.. I think might be some very pleasant DMS plant surprises under the Xmas tree.
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