CXO

5.10%

9.3¢ core lithium ltd

Yep, great points. Really shows the lack of detailed analysis...

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pdtro1

154 Posts.

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28/11/22

09:54

Post #: 65019587
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Originally posted by WhatsTheTip: ↑

Macquarie's assumption is that by June 2024 Core will produced 82Kt of Spod. A Core slide pack from 30 September had 79kt by June 2023. Core also had 180kt so by June 2024 Core indicated 259kt of Spod production. I would suggest 79kt vs 259kt over the period to June 2024 is not the 6 month delay you suggest.

Accepted, part of that 82kt that Macquarie estimate could be in the Jul23-Dec23 period but the more volume you put into the 2nd half of the 2023 calendar year, the more you need to assume a related assumption that commissioning time to successfully ramp up is extended. For a laugh, if you assume commissioning was only successfully completed by 1 April 2024 then you have 45kt is produced across Apr-Jun24. Now Macquarie's modelling has only 37kt spread across Jul-Sep23, Oct-Dec23, Jan-Mar24. That's a weird ramp-up profile if you put any delivery into Jul-Sep23. It's also strange if you put more than perhaps 10-15kt into Oct-Dec23. Their forecast is consistent with minimal production in the calendar year 2023.

And all of this forgets the quality of the modelling around revenue. Core is about to start loading a ship that will deliver revenue and Macquarie is forecasting zero ZERO revenue for FY23 (ie the period to June 2023). That's just a sloppy piece of work - end of story.

And then there is the embedded assumption that all the exploration work is basically going to be unsuccessful. Given Core's track record this is further BS. If Core is successful in its exploration work they have indicated potential expansion circa 2025. The production overlap between BP33 and Grants in the mid-later part of 2024 indicates this could be the start of increased production if reserves/resources could be increased enough to provide confidence this new higher production level could be sustained into the 2030's.

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Yep, great points. Really shows the lack of detailed analysis undertaken here. They've just shifted numbers around without any understanding of the production process. Which is exactly why they should just put their keyboards away rather than depriving some easily-scared retail holders of a solid opportunity.

CXO Price at posting: $1.34 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Yep, great points. Really shows the lack of detailed analysis...

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Yep, great points. Really shows the lack of detailed analysis...

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