Banter and general comments, page-20170

I am expected a turnaround at S&P 500 in January. Mostly positioned for shorting the market. So the short squeeze would help. Unexpectedly, the number of stocks above 200MA are sharply increasing while index is falling. This clear divergence is hinting a turnaround. Plus, inflation is falling sharply, though inflation from housing sector is still high but you can expect it to fall in a near future with a full impact of recent rate increases.

Remember, this is a FEDs induced bear market, unlike, the bear markets of 2008 (Financial crises) and 2000 (dot com buble). Economy is running still hot, positive GDP growth, however, historically, the market bottoms with an increase in unemployment rate. Keep an eye on job data coming in few weeks. Chances of recession is still low other then if you are watching mainstream media, and if there is any recession, it would be mild one.

Market can break the bear market trend line this time with a favourable job data and with the inflation decreasing+China removed the zero covid policy. China would recover very quickly, as someone hinted above the workers coming back to work within no time. I would not be surprised we would be able finally go above the trendline with a 4th and final strike.

I know market is thinking the other way around, this is all IMO.

GLTASHs