Hi Stu
From your post history I can see that you are a good guy. I am just writing to help stimulate opportunities beyond the boundary that you see.
Charts are a game of probabilities. Check my record and you will see I am a long term investor and don't trade. But as a long term investor one needs to respect what is going on within the charts if they want to take advantage of the opportunities they present. While I don't trade, I follow the movements and decision making of chartists very closely. Charting is an art, and just like artwork, there are many different interpretations to the same lines.
Charts work because in such they are a self-fulfilling prophesy in that so many people actually study and trade on chart movements, regardless or in tandem of FA. Things work because enough people believe. BEOT understands this an ensures repetitions happen, suck enough people into the pattern and then when it suits them takes advantage and breaks the pattern. If long term holders understand that there is a trading cycle within the FA cycle, opportunities are there to maximise accumulation.
For example, some got all excited when the sp was hitting $1.80 and with enthusiasm it was time to accumulate more, more more. Long term that is fine, however as an accumulation strategy was not the most efficient use of capital. To the LT holder, the charts were telling us that the probability of going down from there was higher than the probability of going up. For me, that means no need to accumulate, let's sit back and be happy with the holding that I have. Price comes down, the charts continue to show us probabilities of the price going up or down. If you saved money, instead of investing it at $1.80 do you now put that money to work at $1. Is the probability of it going up from here higher? If there is a slight chance of it going down a little more, but a high chance of the SP going much higher, is now the time to buy? The charts help with such decisions.
If LT holders understand what the trader thinks, one can better time their points of accumulation and exit if needed.
FA is important, because it tells us about the long term direction and value of holding a stock. Everything inbetween is a game. If traders or shorters overmanipulate what does one do? Take advantage of the situation!
I hope this helps you consider the situation in a different light, from the eyes of a non-trader.
PS. I don't trade because I don't have the time, it is harder than it looks, long term LT is just as good or better if you come in at the right price, and most importantly I am on too high a tax bracket to throw away money to the tax man.
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