Banter and general comments, page-23500

Everyone fretting about the dipping price of Lithium Carbonate spot prices in China should go listen to the last 10 minutes of the latest episode from Global Lithium Podcast.

Clear manipulation of spot prices by CATL and the Chinese NEV industry (BYD et al), to generate an artificially negative narrative.

North Asia (he listed a Japanese shipment) prices still holding up, and so are contract prices, as evidenced by PLS’ latest shipment.

Contract prices are arguably the majority of the real and true prices that miners are getting paid for, and battery makers are paying for. Just refer to the massive Albermarle, SQM, PLS profit statements in the last week.

Outside the spot market in China, prices are still changing hands at the same rate as end of 2022.

Obviously it is in CATL and the Chinese NEV car industry’s best interest to manufacture this myth of crashing prices to scoop up some cheap lithium.

Unfortunately this is what the wider narrative has focussed on, as the Chinese spot market has been the most visible market in the last 24 months.

Joe also expects the Chinese spot prices to bid back up by the end of the year, when it is obvious that this downward manipulation is not sustainable: given demand is still strong on overseas markets, and restocking is bound to happen.

The February data for EVs in China were also broadly positive, showing underlying demand remains strong, and fears of demand destruction have been overblown - NEV manufacturers will have to start buying up in the market again - it’s just a matter of who will blink first.

Unfortunately in the long term, this is going to hamper any investment into new mines in 2023, which will worsen the lithium shortfall in years to come, and drive up prices for longer, well into the next decade - pretty short sighted really!