CXO 6.59% 9.7¢ core lithium ltd

Banter and general comments, page-23555

  1. 226 Posts.
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    New report from yesterday reiterating sell rating. If you read their original report from 27th they state that:

    Large resource upside required: Studies and exploration are currently underway, with prospects largely within a 20km radius of the Finniss processing plant. While potential resource expansion at BP33 underground and Carlton underground could be promising, together the two resources (120kt Li2O contained) would have to increase by >7x to support a doubling of capacity and asset life, and ~4x of overall Finniss resources (currently 248kt Li2O contained), where new developments are unlikely to come online in time to benefit from the current pricing environment. CXO expects to provide further 2022 exploration results in 2023 as they become available.

    Results from BP33 do not satisfy this 7x increase - while still very promising. Therefore, there was never going to be a change in rating.

    IMO the greatest flaw in the GS model is the pricing for Spod that they use in their DCF. Current spot price as of 03/03/23 via Platts into China was $4800USD. They also do not account for any expansion. If you believe that high prices will persist for longer, or that Core will expand production sooner, then that changes the investment case for Core. GS are bearish on Lithium, so their rhetoric will continue to push this agenda. But best not to ignore but use it to inform your research.

    Anyway, all just my opinion and I am no expert

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5106/5106165-a8a8e511fdcf7cd01b63fbf2b141cb66.jpg




 
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