Short Term Spod Prices 5.pdf@steadfast100Of course the price is...

Short Term Spod Prices 5.pdf

@steadfast100

Of course the price is relevant, agree with you re SP. My point was that the price of spodumene has the most relevancy.

My understanding (assumption) is that when the Core OTAs where negotiated that the pricing component MAY have had something along the lines of ...... the paid price based on the average price of the preceding 3-6 months of spot (or other) price as defined by the following parties.. (say Benchmark, Fastmarkets, Roskill, etc). With allowances for CIF/FOB, actual SC grade (5.5 vs 6%) and any other discounts for long term (4 year) contract or floor/ceiling, etc.. So the price of spodumene is the direct relevant with regards to obtained revenue for each shipment sent. This type of pricing formula was the "norm" for other miners around this time. Yes I believe LTR have some other formula which involves a % (7-9 ish) of the hydroxide price, but this is "the more recent?",

In the October CR presso (page 14 form memory) there was a graph of "consensus price" and in the notes refers to this 6 month lag average price. I have assumed if using it there (in presso) may be a hint of pricing formula. (To this day, I still do not know what the "consensus pricing" heading refers to, consensus of Core and WHO?, Core and the Rolling Stones?, a consensus of the three ladies in accounting dept?, or a consensus of brokers or pricing agencies?. Why not define whom the consensus is with for clarity. (Please do not tell me its a consensus with GS price forecasts, ARGHH!!!)).

So for me, the carbonate / hydroxide pricing is just more noise. Their respective prices may better reflect the "micro" supply / demand balances for product feed into their specific refinery plant/process. So for carbonate, I think more of a CATL input (re their recent...), the price is more prone to volatility / manipulation?.

I sometimes wonder within the "macro" supply / demand balance for Li (in meeting EV & ESS, etc needs), whether there will be more variations in/between the spod, carb, hydroxide prices. Carbonate? not upto speed here, but within the hydroxide area and with more miners moving into refining and the Gangfengs locking up own future spod supplies, where does that leave the more "medium sized" refiners. For example, the Covalent Mt Holland project will mine spod but all used for their own hydroxide plant (other than short period because of delay in refinery), PLS will be re-directing spod to the JV refinery in Sth Korea, etc.. Will this create a mini shortage of supply to the medium sized refiners, will they look more often to the spot market if they have growth ambitions? will is create a mini increase in demand for spod? (for the others). Just ponderings, but maybe a little positive for Core's contract prices and the 20% freely available, or, I can believe anything I want

So yes normally spodumene into hydroxide. Can always had a few more chemicals / refine and get carbonate or visa versa.

Again for me, I track the pricing via SMM website (its free). Not always the same as the others, ie Fastmarket, Benchmark, etc but they want monies or subscription, etc. From the SMM prices I use the trend and try to calibrate future prices against the knowns, AKE, PLS, etc. for my own future predictions. Attached my price graph.