There's an excellent post over on another Li board, which quotes the following figures (thanks for the numbers
@steve10). I'm posting them as a bit of fun to show what we might be looking forward to once we've hit nameplate production and L.O.M. numbers hit 20+ years (< 6-8 month's time?).
ASX peers comparison:
PLS $15.65B MC / $2.48B run rate NPAT = PE 6.3.
AKE $10.58B MC / $657M run rate NPAT = PE 16.1.
MIN $14.25B MC / $774M run rate NPAT = PE 18.4.
Average PE = 13.6.
Considering our worst case scenario, with perhaps unfavourable offtake terms well below current prices (the presentations of late use the wording "Formula-based referencing market prices for spodumene concentrate" - what those terms are exactly, I guess we'll only find out in the next quarterly or the one after), let's say we get on average US$2500 per ton for our SC 5.5 spod.
All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) (US$/t) - LOM Average US$539. Planned output, 190kt p.a..
(US$2500 - US539) x 190 kt = US$373m = AUS$557m p.a..
Using the average PE valuation, our MC should be in the region of A$557m x 13.6 = A$7.5b once the above conditions are met.
In the lead up, let's say we encounter the inevitable hiccups and the output only hits say 60% of nameplate for the first 6 months (I understand from feet on the ground we're around this mark currently), we should be valued around the $4.5bn mark later this year.
That equates to 2.5 x our current MC, and a SP of $2.55.This is why I continue to hold with an iron fist. Those are pessimistic numbers, not factoring in increased resource size, full / increased output, and better pricing than above.
The next 6 months should be very exciting for CXO holders, especially with all the M & A activity in this space. I just hope we get to reach our full potential before any aggressive T/O action happens.
Now is the time to sit back and enjoy watching it all gradually unfold.
