I think the main issue in terms of why we are not priced higher and have so much short interest is the lack of transparency on the price we will achieve via our offtake agreements. I know as retail we have heard SB say 'look to replicate offtake' and some conflicting messages around floor and ceilings, but at the moment we really don't know.
Of course they are commercial in confidence so management can't release the details. So we will need to wait until a quarterly report for a quarter where we shipped spod under the offtake agreements and compare the income per tonne to the spot price at the time to get a good idea of what it all looks like. Unless they are close enough to steady state to provide some FY24 production and revenue guidance in the quarterly?
I am confident we have a good price arrangement but institutions would be cautious on investing to much (and some any at all) without certainty on the offtake prices. And the shorts would be playing on the uncertainty. We know pretty much everything except the price we will get - the rerate will happen when (if) the price is confirmed to be favourable.
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