The negative narrative created by shorters and their accomplices will make Houdini proud and it's all set up by the wording of the report itself which makes one wonder what is really going on.
Basically the whole narrative is made from a 14 weeks initial production period. This did produce good revenue and the cash on hand has increased from $98 mill at 31st Mar to $152 mill at 30th Jun, with no debt...but somehow all this is swept under the carpet.
Of course some kind of projection was made for FY24 which was totally based on this initial 14 weeks period with all the initial teething problems...so this means the "worst case" scenario was projected where no improvement is factored in.
The rather crude forecast for FY25 was even more unusual...there will be higher mining and processing rates than FY24 but less "production" because what's mined will remain in a ROM stockpile by the end of FY25...again that's only if the processing plant is not improved at all.
So what does all this mean?...IMO, the red herring has been created which has seen the SP significantly fall but this play is set up for spectacular rises...announcements of:
- improved recovery rates
- improved flood maintenance and pit wall maintenance resulting in more productive days
- improved processing plant productivity
etc...whow, "the production for FY24 and FY25 will better than forecast and there is no longer a big stockpile by the end of FY25 predicted"...how the narrative can change to make management look so good and give the powers of play a nice profit or maybe even a successful TO...I'm only being cynical of course![]()
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