CXO 0.58% 8.7¢ core lithium ltd

I'm sorry Stu, but its Maths.If you have a 1.9Mt reserve left...

  1. 2,720 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 5856
    I'm sorry Stu, but its Maths.

    If you have a 1.9Mt reserve left and want to mine it at anything close to 1Mt/yr its not going to last more than 2 years. Slow the mining down a bit and you get 3 years but not 4-5. No recent mining plan produced by Core has been anything close to 5 years for Grants. An update could well be 15-20 years across all the deposits, but Grants is only the first couple of years.

    With a revised mine plan that perhaps is 2.6Mt (before any extraction) and 2.4Mt after current digging you can squeeze it to 3 years by mining at 800ktpa. To get to 4-5 years you need a revised mining plan (that may or may not happen) and an increased JORC. You probably also need some years of rather low production which kinda defeats the purpose of saying there is a longer life. While there may be drilling that could increase the JORC resource, I'd have thought the Geo's would have done that drilling that might to that sometime in the last 5 years.

    Please don't confuse statements that Grants is a small deposit that will end soon with a suggestion that its time to sell. Accepted theory is that the share price is the discounted value of all future cash flows. Most of that value typically comes from well beyond the next couple of years cash flow. If share prices like $2 were possible/sensible then prices well above the current level can be sensible as clarity emerges on future production volumes that will be delivered by BP33 and the other deposits over the next 10+ years.

    If you go back to Core's schedule from July2022, Grants Open Pit was expected to provide ore for 2 full years so this isn't new information (possibly conviently forgotten information but not new). While Grants Underground looked like it was 1yr across development/Stopping, the total ore from underground was 0.3Mt which isn't even half a year at current mining rates.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add CXO (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
8.7¢
Change
0.001(0.58%)
Mkt cap ! $185.9M
Open High Low Value Volume
8.4¢ 8.8¢ 8.2¢ $1.030M 12.07M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
15 233467 8.6¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
8.7¢ 726289 19
View Market Depth
Last trade - 13.21pm 26/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
CXO (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.