Banter and general comments, page-34816

Nice summary, except for the comment that "Greenbush's resource by itself can feed up the whole EV revolution." Reports from a few months ago put Greenbushes as 360Mt @ 1.5%. That's 13,354kt LCE. The most recent Goldman demand forecast put lithium demand between 2024 and 2030 at 15,567kt LCE with most of that coming from EV's.

Even if it was technically possible for Greenbushes to supply at ever-increasing rates, the ore resource (not reserve) at Greenbushes is smaller than projected Goldman lithium demand across 2024 to 2030. IMO Greenbushes is not big enough to supply the whole EV revolution. More big mines are needed. Projected 20%+ compounded growth rates need a massive increase in supply as demand doubles in under 4 years. That means the lithium industry in 4 years time may need to bring online an equivalent to every in-production resource that exists today. The easy win's to do this have been or are being implemented (expanding Greenbushes, expanding Pilgangoora, restarting C&M facilities (Bald Hill, NAL), commencing projects other projects that have taken years, to progress to their in-development status like LTR, Sigma, Goulamina, Mt Holland...).

The lithium industry in the 2030's may well need to supply 3,000ktpa or more of LCE. If Hard rock were to supply 2,000ktpa of LCE that would be the equivalent of supplying around 14.7Mt of 5.5% spod each year. Perhaps something around 2Mt of new spod capacity would be needed each year later this decade. [The Li2O to LCE multiplier is 2.473x. 14.7Mt*5.5%*2.473=1,999kt].