Hi boom, I hear you and I also have been on CXO journey since 2016. The upside to wait out 1-2 years is far greater than selling now. Core SP is in the toilet compared to other Lithium producers like PLS so any positive news will take Core share price back very quickly relative to its peers. I'm hoping the Lithium price recovery will start Mar-24; BP33 FID & team to mobilize by Apr-24 and 2024 drilling program to start May/June. Lot of ifs & but, as always I'm looking for positive and long term.
I always though Carlton currently 6MT may be bigger than BP33 and I was quite impressed that Carlton studies are also continuing. As WTT mentioned once the price recovers there could be opportunity to accelerate Carlton as well. I'm very much looking forward to 2023 drilling results, some posters have already mentioned about the new find near BP33.
Below is a quick back of the envelope calculation for FY24 Q2 (Oct-Dec) financials (P&L / Cashflow). Even taking into account royalty, higher exploration studies than 5M we may still get close to
$30M P&L profit. Can someone (WTT) please verify this numbers. I was not sure of C1 cost, assumed 904 AUD and based it just on concentrate sales (prod = sale). Assuming similar results in prior quarter (Jul-Sep), Core would use $60M profit to impair stripping cost currently parked in the Balance Sheet. This would be just an accounting treatment, money is already spent so no cashflow impact. If auditors provide the go ahead, I expect Core to release a much lower C1 unit cost for next 6 months (Jan-Jun 2024) somewhere around AUD $500/T as all ore processing will be from ROM.
Just for clarity, I do want to emphasize FY24 Q1 (Jul-Sept) cashflow of -$56M . This included $28M Yahua one-off prepayment adjustment, $4M capital raise fee and ~$20M additional C1 opex building ROM for wet season. We have a lot of newbies so use this for you background rather than making doom / gloom predictions.
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| Product | Volume | USD Price | USD $$ | Exc Rate | AUD $$ |
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| FY24 Q2 | Revenue | Oct Concentrate | (10,350) | 1500 | (15,525,000) | 0.65 | (23,884,615) |
| (Oct-Dec) |
| Oct Fines | (16,374) | 150 | (2,456,100) | 0.65 | (3,778,615) |
|
| Nov Concentrate | (10,188) | 1250 | (12,735,000) | 0.66 | (19,295,455) |
|
| Nov Fines | (16,246) | 150 | (2,436,900) | 0.67 | (3,637,164) |
|
| Dec Concentrate | (10,000) | 1000 | (10,000,000) | 0.67 | (14,925,373) |
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|
|
| Production |
| 30,538 |
|
|
|
|
| Expense | C1 Unit Cost | 30,538 | 904 | (aud) |
| 27,606,352 |
| Capital | Assume 15M vs 20M prior quarter |
|
| 15,000,000 |
| Exploration / Studies | Assume 5M vs 10M prior quarter |
|
| 5,000,000 |
| Bank Interest |
|
|
|
|
| (2,500,000) |
| P&L (exclude capital) |
|
|
|
| (35,414,871) |
| Cashflow (- is positive) |
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|
|
| (20,414,871) |
(20min delay)