BP,
To your query re how long for Scoping Study and how do laboratory results tie-in to this, can offer my 2cents worth.
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Firstly no expert, have no idea, High probability (120%) am wrong, have no info and just guessing.
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From laboratory work should be major and minor takeaways. For example:
1. Yep converted Spod to LiOH
2. HEAT and more heat - "In the first stage the sample was placed in a kiln for 2 hours at 1100 degrees C...", "In second stage the sample was crushed (passing a 1mm sieve), 20ml/kg of 95% concentrated sulphuric acid at 200 degrees C added showing no signs of frothing with 2% residual waste gave optimum...", and "Final stage of drying at 80 degrees C generated no visible reaction and...".
So may need roasters, crushing, acids and tailings removal and disposal and drying in refinery process.
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Scoping study is a pre-Pre Feasibilty Study with lots of unknowns and lots of assumptions but would still expect final" rubbery" NPV, IRR and payback results.
For $4M with a team of 20 @ $250/hr @ 40 hours/week gives 20 weeks. So Core had $5M, or was it $6M, grant then could expect 5-6 month wait. I would want maximum bang for my buck, and seeing was $0 Core input, must learn to be patient.
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For study some critical assumptions:
1. How much Li in them der hills we got? From available initial drill results, results from Grants, BP33, Gangong.., similar geology and best guess let's assume have 300M tonnes of inferred resource (NOT indicative, probable or inferred ore reserve).
2. Assume refinery design life of 30 years, then need a 10M tonnes/year sized refinery.
3. Will need a 2000 tonne/hr roaster(s) operating at 1100 degrees C.
Quick phone call to The ACME Roaster Supply Co, do you have a 2000t/hr at 1100C roaster, how much. Yes Model No AAA1, cost $20M, 15 year life, requires .2Mcumeter /hour gas inflow, and will throw in the 250kW electric motor to drive it for free.
So remembering LNG + flame = heat, another quick call to our neighbour (if refinery located in Middle Arm Industrial Park) IPEX LNG Darwin Plant: Hey neighbour how much would you sell me 10Mcum/day (total refinery requirement) for the next 30 years @ mates rates.
Another quick call to other neighbour Darwin Power Plant, how much for using 20k kWhr/day electricity supplies at 6.6k V at mates rates.
And so on, and so...
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FInally have inputs for financial model.
1. Under sub-heading Roaster, have Capital Cost input of $20M in Year 1 and in Year 15, have Operating Cost - Gas at $X/year and electricity at $Y/year for Years 1 through 30.
2. For all other items
3. Push the "Go" button and out comes the NPV, IRR and payback, etc values.
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As a project transitions through pre-Pre Feasibility Study, Pre Feasibilty Study (PFS), Definitive Feasibilty Study (DFS) , Bankable DFS more and more engineering is done and the number of assumptions decreases and have more certainty. For example, Final Capital Cost Estimate will vary: $XXX +80% - 60%, PFS = $XXX1 +50% - 35%, DFS = $XXX1 +25% - 15%, thro to Bankable DFS = $XXX3 +15% - 10%.
Nothing is written in stone, can skip steps, or elect to spend less on one and more on other, etc. Do more FEED work before FID, etc..
My feeling is that our process to before final investment decision (FID) will be long and fairly detail as: new to refinery business and if the Bank of Federal Govt (those lovely taxpayers) is to provide debt funding will need Bankable DFS (bureaucrats ensuring taxpayers money well spent). Still long way to go.
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Summing up:
1. I apply my own "Rubbery NPV Index Rating" to studies. That is, take NPV numbers, raise to 2 metres off ground, drop and measure the rebound or bounce height. Higher the rebound height the less I believe.
2. Concept study will hopefully tell you is it worth going on, do something else.
3. So for Core, and they would know more than me (cause I know Jack sh$&t), good results = move forward, concentrate on this, eject peripherals, OR bad results = forget processing LiOH, and become a gold, or uranium or tantalum processor.
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Now I wonder what SB meant about corporate activity early next quarter and crystallising assets? Could this just be crystal ball gazing I wonder?
(20min delay)