We are agreed, Core needs to set out its vision more clearly....

We are agreed, Core needs to set out its vision more clearly. Its fantastic that they have ticked the box Australia's next lithium producer but the plan beyond BP33 needs work (and whether BP33 is concurrent to another resource or following Grants)

Unless Core really ramps up exploration and finds a lot more resource, I can't see how they can both expand production and look at hydroxide. Realistically you wouldn't invest the A$500m+ and probably nearer A$1b for Hydroxide unless you have 20+ years of life of mine to feed the hydroxide plant. Even at full steam ahead through all the design phases, its probably 4-5 years before you would have a producing Hydroxide plant. This elapsed development and build timeframe will eat into life of mine. The relevant life of mine is when hydroxide production starts. If you wanted 20+ years of resource, you need a life of mine out to around 2047 (call it 2050+). With modest additions the existing JORC Core might get close to this, but it means zero expansion. On this scenario BP33 is a 1:1 replacement for Grants. Calton, Hong Gong etc are basically mothballed until the 2030's when BP33 mining phases down. Why would you be extension drilling on deposits you plan to mothball for 7 years?

If Core goes down the expansion pathway, BP33 comes online late 2024, possibly with a 2nd concentrator. As Grants winds down, another nearby deposit is brought online (with Carlton / Hang Gong the most likely options). This could punch Core throughput up to circa 2Mt and take Spod volumes up to levels like 350kt, perhaps even 400ktpa (with fines). This is great for near-term profitability but the life of mine will come back down as you are mining the resource twice as quickly. The life of mine with a capacity expansion is now likely to be too short for Hydroxide (unless Core has a big discovery somewhere). If Core were to expand capacity in the next few years and maintain that capacity as it progresses to Hydroxide, the JORC probably needs to be more like 60-70Mt before a Hydroxide FID.

I guess there is the technical possibility of ramping up volumes and then pulling volumes back down again to do Hydroxide. I don't think the market would react well to expanding and then perhaps halving production to implement a Hydroxide pathway.

If I'd have to guess, Core is going down the expansion pathway but they are not quite ready to abandon Hydroxide ambitions because they do see potential to find that big discovery. Hydroxide will therefore continue to be waved as a somewhere in the future strategy but dollars spend on it will remain small.

Also to clarify, Core don't need to be $1.50 any time in the next 3-4 months or even this year for $2.50 to still be possible in a few years. All I'm saying is that if there is a $2.50 sensible future value, investors will start bidding up the price so that the price now is closer to that mark. If there is a clearly set out strategy that the majority of investors believe is sensible and will deliver that sort of value, investors will accept paying a lot more than $1.01 to $1.10 type prices to secure their share of that. With the share market any sort of price track is possible.

There is some merit in developing a multi-metal strategy but there is also merit in being focused on one metal and doing it well. Its a bit like the Expansion / Hydroxide discussion above. At some stage Core is going to need to choose. Does it stay only Lithium and divest other tenements. Is there money to be made in the other metals/tenements and does Core develop minerals where there is profit to be made (but with a primary focus on Lithium). Its part of the strategy Core needs to at some stage clarify.