Hi Serpentis,
Agree with some points but need to pull you up on a couple, imo:
"If you tore up all the contracts and threw everything onto the spot market then supply would drastically increase, which would consequently reduce the prices."
I disagree. At least as far as it seems you are implying that the increase would be relatively significant and relatively rapid.
We all know by now that forecasts of supply v demand out til 2030 indicate worsening supply shortfalls, even when we consider the "probable" and "possible" new projects/expansions. What makes you think a whole lot more supply will come online in a manner/timeframe that will significantly reduce/reverse this shortfall?
Supply from where? Who? When?
Bringing a new operation to production is typically a 5-7 year process, longer with the usual hiccups of permits and funding etc.
Imo there is very little chance of a "drastic" increase in supply, beyond that which is already assessed as being "planned", "highly probable", "probable" and "possible".
Imo there are nowhere near enough early-stage mines in the pipeline now, to "correct" this situation in the next 7-10 years.
Even if a few billion was thrown at new operations tomorrow, these will take 4/5/6/7 years to get to production. Plus, we'd need about 1Mtpa LCE
additional supply (
above what is currently considered probable and possible) in order to meet forecast demand...
That's equivalent to THIRTY new SDVs at 32ktpa each...!!!
In a decade. An average of three EVERY year. Ponder that.
BTW in spod terms, that's about 8Mtpa SC6. Ponder that.
Who/where/when?
How is it even remotely possible?
"I'm seeing people talking about the slow progress on SDV. SDV has sat there for over a DECADE doing absolutely nothing..... This is entirely on Galaxy's management. As other companies advanced their projects into construction and then production, SDV just sat there."
Yes and no, imo.
Building SDV to 25ktpa required almost $500M. We've never had that money. GXY was in talks in 2017/2018 with potential funding parters, but as the pricing came off, GXY was not willing to give up more than what they felt was necessary to secure a deal. They clarified this many times. Potential partners/funders were effectively undervaluing SDV and a deal would have not nearly recognised its true value, especially considering that this is a several-decade long operation. Imo they were absolutely right in doing so, because, as we can see today, that period of price "collapse" was relatively short-lived and in no way represents what is in store for the coming 10/20 years. It would have been terrible to take a crap deal just to be a couple of years ahead. Anthony Tse had his finger on the pulse of the market (including future demand growth), and if you had seen some of his presentations / conference calls, you would have realised that he was very switched on in this regard.
Sure, GXY secured some serious cash via the POSCO sale, but times were still very uncertain and the board was clearly not willing to sign-off the FID for commencing SDV build in a high-risk period where even Mt Cattlin was going backwards in real terms.
They investigated other potential processing tech, considering the various claims etc that were being thrown around by others, but settled on a modified traditional process in the end.
FEED etc was then performed, as can be seen in the various announcements. A modular/staged approach was adopted to manage risk. A strategy of primary grade was refined to identify BG capability through various piloting and testing.
In the meantime, the supply-demand hiccup has passed, and prices have risen. Mt Cattlin is now making money again.
The risk of extended pain has mostly passed, and NOW is the time to build SDV.
With $200M in cash, GXY can spend circa $150M on a circa 10ktpa plant without significant risk, and keeping enough $$ to progress JB and support Mt Cat if required.
Then the merger happened.
The latest plan for SDV was laid out recently. Essentially an 11ktpa plant with subsequent 21ktpa expansion in either 1 or 2 stages.
The recent frustration expressed by some here relates to the fact, AFAICT, that the SDV development plan was supposed to continue, and that means 1st operational ponds completed by the end of this year. It appears that the earthworks have not started and that perhaps that timeline is now unachievable...? ...and we also find out, indirectly, that Simon Hay is leaving / has left. (Yes I realise they were not "required" to announce this but imo it is poor form considering his previous position ).
Anyway, imo there are various reasons why SDV was not built 2/3/4/5 years ago. That's not to say that everything went perfectly, by any means. It's a longer story, but those are some key points imo.
NOW is the time to build SDV, and we expect ORE / AKE management to deliver on this. IF there is a delay to the last SDV schedule (which there may not be, but it appears there might be), then they should tell us asap. We have the cash to build it, the risk and market has vastly improved, and we expect to see tangible progress asap.
We expect to see 1st production in Q4 2022, and to be updated with key milestones along the way.
Imo there is no reason why this should not be achievable.
ORE is certainly not "to blame", but they are now responsible and now under pressure to make this happen.
Just some thoughts to add to the discussion.
Cheers
IMO
DYOR